413
FXUS62 KMFL 031149
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
FEW CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WHILE A
WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES MEANDERING TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF
STREAM WATERS. THESE TWO SURFACE LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY VEERING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT WILL ACT TO INJECT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND COVERAGE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY, WHICH MOST MODELS SUGGEST SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE COULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO FEATURE A SIMILAR SETUP AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN IN THE VICINITY, ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, AND 72-HOUR
TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES. SOME MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD
STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS, BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND INTER-MODEL AGREEMENT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW, RESULTING IN A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THAT SOLUTION.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG) REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING, WITH 1-HOUR THRESHOLDS GENERALLY AROUND 3-4
INCHES, AND 24-HOUR THRESHOLDS EXCEEDING 8 INCHES. CURRENT
PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING THE 1-HOUR THRESHOLDS ON WEDNESDAY REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 10% (OR 1 IN 10). GIVEN THIS, AND THE FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
HOWEVER, A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE UNSETTLED
PATTERN CONTINUES.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND, AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COASTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING
NORTHWARD, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
MIGHT STILL LINGER, HELPING TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, WPC HAS PLACED THE EAST
COAST METRO UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
COME SUNDAY, RIDGING MAY BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A
SURFACE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO SET UP TO THE NORTH, SHIFTING WINDS TO A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND POTENTIALLY SIGNALING A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THIS SOLUTION AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS LOW
AT THIS POINT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UP TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
COMPLEX TAF FORECAST TODAY AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS BY 18-20Z ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN ERRATIC WIND SHIFTS AND POTENTIALLY SUB-
MVFR CIGS/VIS AT SOME EAST COAST TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ALTHOUGH A ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE MAY
BRIEFLY VEER WINDS ONSHORE BEFORE SHRA/TSRA ADVECTS INTO THE EAST
COAST METRO. TEMPOS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON TRENDS LATER
TODAY. L/V WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WATERS TODAY, WHILE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED OUT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT, LIGHT NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER TODAY, AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT 2-4 FEET. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WHICH
MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 92 77 90 77 / 80 70 80 50
WEST KENDALL 91 76 89 76 / 80 70 80 50
OPA-LOCKA 92 77 91 76 / 80 70 80 50
HOMESTEAD 90 76 88 76 / 80 80 80 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 77 90 76 / 80 70 80 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 92 78 90 77 / 80 70 80 50
PEMBROKE PINES 94 77 92 76 / 80 70 80 50
WEST PALM BEACH 92 77 89 76 / 80 60 80 40
BOCA RATON 93 76 90 76 / 80 70 80 50
NAPLES 91 77 90 78 / 70 60 70 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...HADI
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