650
FXUS62 KMFL 041118
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
718 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
FEW CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS SETUP WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING AND
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. IN
FACT, ACARS SOUNDING DATA ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
DEPICT A WELL- MOISTENED ENVIRONMENT, WITH PWATS HOVERING IN THE
2.2-2.4 INCH RANGE, WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT PLENTIFUL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
(SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY). CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY IS FORECAST
TO START A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPS ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SURFACE
FRONT GRADUALLY RETROGRADES OVER THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER, HIGH-RES
MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT INCONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE FOR RAINFALL ACTIVITY, WITH SOME OF
THE LATEST RUNS DELAYING FROM AN EARLY MORNING TO A LATE MORNING
START, FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMIAMI TRAIL.
DESPITE SOME OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES, CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM TO
HIGH REGARDING THE PROLIFIC NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY FORECAST FOR
TODAY. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2
INCHES WILL BE COMMONPLACE, WITH A 1 IN 10 CHANCE OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES IN ISOLATED SPOTS. WHILE MOST OF THIS RAIN IS
FORECAST TO FALL OVER RURAL AND SPARSELY INHABITED AREAS, ANY
ACTIVITY THAT FALLS OVER URBANIZED CENTERS COULD POSE A THREAT
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF IT FALLS TOO QUICKLY, OR
OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LINGERS
OVER THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND
OVERALL COVERAGE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR TODAY GIVEN GREATER CLOUD
COVERAGE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING
NORTHWARD WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER OUR AREA.
NEVERTHELESS, WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE INFLUX OVER
THE AREA, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH 60-70% FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
US NEXT WEEK, AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY
DROPPING ALONG SE CONUS AND NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP CONDITIONS WET AND UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UP TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
LIGHT WIND FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH THE SEA-BREEZE AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CREATING VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING
BECOMING VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT, WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WITH ELEVATED
CHANCED FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT 2-4 FEET, EXCEPT IN AND AROUND STORMS
WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 88 77 88 77 / 80 70 80 40
WEST KENDALL 88 76 88 76 / 80 60 80 40
OPA-LOCKA 89 76 89 77 / 80 60 80 40
HOMESTEAD 87 76 88 76 / 80 70 80 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 76 88 77 / 80 60 80 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 77 89 77 / 80 60 80 40
PEMBROKE PINES 90 76 91 77 / 80 60 80 40
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 89 76 / 80 60 70 40
BOCA RATON 90 75 90 75 / 80 60 70 40
NAPLES 90 78 90 78 / 80 60 60 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF
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