636
FXUS62 KMFL 041755
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
155 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
THE PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT OVER THE REGION, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING OVER THE REGION DUE TO THE
RATHER LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE. THE LATEST
ACARS DATA SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS CURRENT
PWAT VALUES HOVER AROUND 2.20 INCHES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL OVER THE AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH AS THE LATEST MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE VALUES GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 2.2
AND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIMES OF PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
THE DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE METRO AREAS AS WELL AS LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
WITH AN INCREASED AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ALONG WITH
AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT AND ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING
NORTHWARD WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER OUR AREA.
NEVERTHELESS, WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE INFLUX OVER
THE AREA, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH 60-70% FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN
US NEXT WEEK, AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY
DROPPING ALONG SE CONUS AND NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP CONDITIONS WET AND UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UP TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
A RATHER LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP, HOWEVER, IT WILL
REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE AND WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN
INLAND PROGRESSION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS
LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP,
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR STORMS AND PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT, WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WITH ELEVATED
CHANCED FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT 2-4 FEET, EXCEPT IN AND AROUND STORMS
WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 77 89 77 89 / 70 90 60 80
WEST KENDALL 76 88 76 89 / 70 90 50 80
OPA-LOCKA 76 90 76 90 / 60 90 60 80
HOMESTEAD 76 88 76 89 / 80 90 60 80
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 76 89 / 60 90 60 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 90 77 90 / 60 90 50 80
PEMBROKE PINES 76 91 76 91 / 60 90 60 80
WEST PALM BEACH 76 90 76 91 / 50 80 50 80
BOCA RATON 76 90 76 91 / 60 80 50 80
NAPLES 78 90 78 91 / 60 80 50 70
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CWC
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