945
FXUS62 KMFL 051708
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
108 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. AFTER A
FAIRLY QUIET START TO THE DAY OVER THE PENINSULA, CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY MOIST
COLUMN THROUGH 500 MB, AND PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 2.1-2.3
INCHES. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE FAIRLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES AGAIN
TODAY. BETWEEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOWS AND THE HIGH RAINFALL
RATES, URBAN FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. WPC CONTINUES TO HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
TODAY...
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
AN ELONGATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF UP TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A 05Z SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA, WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
(DELINEATED BY PRIMARILY A TD GRADIENT). ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
MORE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ADVECTING NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN STREAM THIS WEEKEND. THEY ALSO AGREE ON VERY LITTLE
ORGANIZATION OF A SURFACE REFLECTION TO THE WAVE, LIKELY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR OVER LAND AREAS AS THE WAVE MOVES FROM
THE GULF TO THE ATLANTIC. SO, WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT, THE SURFACE FORCING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BROAD
AND LIKELY MORE DRIVEN BY SEABREEZE, OUTFLOW, AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES. THIS SETUP YIELDS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MFL SHOWS PWATS IN THE TOP 10TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FURTHER, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT
OF THE WEST, WITH SURFACE FLOW BACKED MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BROAD TROUGH. THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A
CONVERGENT MOISTURE FEED WITH STORMS LINING UP AND MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND THE BACKGROUND WINDS
COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY. FURTHER NORTH, THE BROAD CYCLONIC STORM
MAY RESULT IN LESS TRAINING OF STORMS AND MORE OF A NORTH TO SOUTH
MOVEMENT DOWN THE EAST COAST. BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS, CAMS, AND THE
NATIONAL BLEND, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH COMMON RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" WHERE IT RAINS, WITH
VALUES OF 2-4" BEING A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
CONFINED TO THE HEAVIER STORMS. THE HREF LPMM DATA INDICATES THAT
THERE'S A WORST CASE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SPOT OR TWO TO PICK
UP 4-6" IN SHORT ORDER AND THIS IS SUPPORTED IN MORE THAN JUST ONE
OR TWO OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THESE MORE EXTREME AMOUNTS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY. BUT AGAIN, IT'S
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHERE THESE AMOUNTS MAY FALL IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND SOME OF THE HREF MEMBERS HAVE THESE HOT-SPOTS
OFFSHORE - JUST SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...
NOT GOING TO REHASH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AS IT'S SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
LAID OUT ABOVE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION, THOUGH THE MOISTURE
AND BROAD SURFACE FORCING WILL REMAIN. THE GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ALONG THE TRAILING CONVERGENCE AREA BEHIND THE VERY WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
ENSEMBLES ALL REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN AND AS FAR
AS RAIN AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED, THEY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY,
BUT POSSIBLY AN INCH OR SO LOWER ACROSS THE BOARD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
IF YOU LIKE THE ABOVE, THERE'S PLENTY MORE OF IT IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND WE'RE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE PERPETUAL STATIONARY BOUNDARY/TROUGH. IN
SHORT, A CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN BUT LOW
TIMING/LOCATION PREDICTABILITY IS EXPECTED. GENERALLY THOUGH,
STORMS SHOULD FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND. POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN REMAIN LIKELY, BUT THE DETAILS ON AMOUNTS WON'T BECOME
CLEARER UNTIL WE ENTER THE 36-48 HOUR WINDOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE
TRYING TO PUSH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
FOR A SHORT TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
A GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME MODERATE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS COULD DEVELOP IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 77 88 77 90 / 70 70 40 80
WEST KENDALL 75 88 77 90 / 70 80 40 80
OPA-LOCKA 76 89 77 91 / 60 80 40 80
HOMESTEAD 75 87 76 89 / 70 70 40 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 88 77 90 / 70 80 50 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 89 77 91 / 70 80 50 80
PEMBROKE PINES 76 90 77 92 / 60 80 40 80
WEST PALM BEACH 76 90 76 91 / 60 80 50 80
BOCA RATON 75 90 76 91 / 60 80 50 80
NAPLES 77 89 79 90 / 70 70 30 70
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CMF
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