225
FXUS62 KMFL 061125
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
725 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
TODAY...
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE STRETCHED
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC, THROUGH NORTH-
CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, A 05Z
HAND ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A TIGHT TD GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA, WITH A MORE DEFINED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
GULF, ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, BENDING NORTHWARD BACK TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, WINDS ARE GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY TO ITS NORTH. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MFL
SAMPLED PWATS OF ABOUT 2.3" WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND
STILL IN THE UPPER 10TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WHILE THERE'S PLENTY OF MOISTURE, THE CIRRUS CANOPY IS A BIT
LESS THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS LAND AREAS TODAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MAY HELP WITH AN EARLIER START TO, AND MORE NUMEROUS
CONVECTION ALONG, THE GULF BREEZE AT IT MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING.
STORMS SHOULD THEN WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS AND UP THE EAST COAST
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE THAT WILL REMAIN PINNED CLOSE TO
THE COAST. WITH 700MB FLOW VEERED A BIT FROM THE SURFACE, IT MAY
MEAN THAT STORMS THAT INITIALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE
WILL GET PUSHED BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AS THEY GENERALLY MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. GLOBAL, HI-RES, AND CALIBRATED GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LOWER POTENTIAL QPF VALUES THAN YESTERDAY. THIS MAY BE
BECAUSE SOME UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ON THE EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY
SNEAK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND START TO LOWER THE PWATS A BIT.
THAT SAID, EXPECT ABOUT 1-2" OF RAIN IN MOST STORMS THAT DEVELOP,
WITH A SCATTERED FEW PRODUCING AROUND 2-3". WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAY RESULT IN SOME BACK-BUILDING OR TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE
BROWARD AND ESPECIALLY PALM BEACH METROS, A REASONABLE WORST CASE
IN AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR TWO WOULD BE AROUND 4".
SUNDAY...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE ADVECTED OUT OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY, LEAVING BEHIND SOME UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS PRONOUNCED AS WELL. IT'S
LIKELY THAT THE MAIN FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE
SEABREEZES. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY, THAT WILL
FAVOR A PATTERN OF LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE
GULF COAST, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND ROBUST ALONG THE EAST COAST
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE COULD ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC BREEZE. WITH THE REDUCTION OF PWATS
TO THE UPPER QUARTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY, EXPECT MORE TYPICAL RAIN
AMOUNTS WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH MID-WEEK. ENSEMBLES
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT DIFFERENCES IN
THE CORE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION START TO INTRODUCE QPF DIFFERENCES MID TO LATE WEEK ACROSS
FLORIDA BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE PATTERN CONSISTING OF UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND MESSY SEABREEZE
INTERACTIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT PWATS
APPEAR TO BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS BASED ON STORM MOVEMENTS, BUT INDIVIDUAL STORMS
MAY NOT BE AS EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS PAST WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
VFR CIGS/VIS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE WINDS VEER
ONSHORE ALONG BOTH COASTS. SHRA/TSRA WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER
16-17Z, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL OF SUB MVFR CIGS/VIS AND
ERRATIC WIND SHIFTS AT TERMINALS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY SHRA/TSRA.
TEMPOS MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY DEPENDING ON FORECAST TRENDS. L/V
WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS COULD DEVELOP IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 77 90 77 / 80 50 80 60
WEST KENDALL 89 76 90 76 / 80 50 80 50
OPA-LOCKA 90 77 91 76 / 80 50 80 60
HOMESTEAD 88 76 89 76 / 80 60 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 77 90 76 / 80 60 80 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 90 77 91 77 / 80 50 80 60
PEMBROKE PINES 91 77 92 76 / 80 50 80 60
WEST PALM BEACH 90 76 91 76 / 80 70 80 60
BOCA RATON 90 76 91 76 / 80 60 80 70
NAPLES 90 78 89 77 / 80 70 70 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HADI
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