409
FXUS62 KMFL 061714
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
114 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH FL AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY PICKING UP A NICE MESOLOW
OFF THE UPPER KEYS, WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THAT FEATURE. WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, THE GREATEST THREAT TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO, WHERE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY WERE
LOWERED A BIT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ARE HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A BIT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
TODAY...
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE STRETCHED
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC, THROUGH NORTH-
CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, A 05Z
HAND ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A TIGHT TD GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA, WITH A MORE DEFINED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
GULF, ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, BENDING NORTHWARD BACK TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, WINDS ARE GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY TO ITS NORTH. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MFL
SAMPLED PWATS OF ABOUT 2.3" WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND
STILL IN THE UPPER 10TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WHILE THERE'S PLENTY OF MOISTURE, THE CIRRUS CANOPY IS A BIT
LESS THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS LAND AREAS TODAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MAY HELP WITH AN EARLIER START TO, AND MORE NUMEROUS
CONVECTION ALONG, THE GULF BREEZE AT IT MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING.
STORMS SHOULD THEN WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS AND UP THE EAST COAST
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE THAT WILL REMAIN PINNED CLOSE TO
THE COAST. WITH 700MB FLOW VEERED A BIT FROM THE SURFACE, IT MAY
MEAN THAT STORMS THAT INITIALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE
WILL GET PUSHED BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AS THEY GENERALLY MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. GLOBAL, HI-RES, AND CALIBRATED GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LOWER POTENTIAL QPF VALUES THAN YESTERDAY. THIS MAY BE
BECAUSE SOME UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ON THE EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY
SNEAK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND START TO LOWER THE PWATS A BIT.
THAT SAID, EXPECT ABOUT 1-2" OF RAIN IN MOST STORMS THAT DEVELOP,
WITH A SCATTERED FEW PRODUCING AROUND 2-3". WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MAY RESULT IN SOME BACK-BUILDING OR TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE
BROWARD AND ESPECIALLY PALM BEACH METROS, A REASONABLE WORST CASE
IN AN ISOLATED LOCATION OR TWO WOULD BE AROUND 4".
SUNDAY...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE ADVECTED OUT OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY, LEAVING BEHIND SOME UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS PRONOUNCED AS WELL. IT'S
LIKELY THAT THE MAIN FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE
SEABREEZES. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY, THAT WILL
FAVOR A PATTERN OF LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE
GULF COAST, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND ROBUST ALONG THE EAST COAST
IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE COULD ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC BREEZE. WITH THE REDUCTION OF PWATS
TO THE UPPER QUARTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY, EXPECT MORE TYPICAL RAIN
AMOUNTS WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH MID-WEEK. ENSEMBLES
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT DIFFERENCES IN
THE CORE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION START TO INTRODUCE QPF DIFFERENCES MID TO LATE WEEK ACROSS
FLORIDA BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE PATTERN CONSISTING OF UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND MESSY SEABREEZE
INTERACTIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT PWATS
APPEAR TO BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS BASED ON STORM MOVEMENTS, BUT INDIVIDUAL STORMS
MAY NOT BE AS EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS PAST WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION S/SE WINDS ACROSS THE METRO AROUND 10 KTS, WITH A
WESTERLY WIND AT APF. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS COULD DEVELOP IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 77 90 77 90 / 50 80 60 70
WEST KENDALL 76 90 76 90 / 50 80 50 80
OPA-LOCKA 77 91 76 91 / 50 80 60 80
HOMESTEAD 76 89 76 89 / 60 60 50 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 76 90 / 60 80 60 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 91 77 91 / 50 80 60 80
PEMBROKE PINES 77 92 76 92 / 50 80 60 80
WEST PALM BEACH 76 91 76 90 / 70 80 60 80
BOCA RATON 76 91 76 91 / 60 80 70 80
NAPLES 78 89 77 90 / 70 70 40 80
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CMF
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