214
FXUS62 KMFL 071726
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
126 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SOUTH FL WILL SEE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AS LESS CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS WITH NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES
HAVE INCREASED TO 2.1-2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK STEERING FLOWS, SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESENT A URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
RISK THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SFC ANALYSES AND MODEL DATA SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER FRONT
LINGERING OVER S FLORIDA, WHILE A LONG STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHES FROM S TX THROUGH N FL AND THE CAROLINAS, WITH AN
ATTENDANT LOW LINGERING AROUND THE GA/FL STATE LINE. MEANWHILE, A
SHORT WAVE OVER THE E GULF MAY CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK
S/SW FLOW AT THE SFC, SHOULD BRING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOFLO THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES, WITH PWATS FROM MFL UPPER AIR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
KEEPING 2.1-2.5" IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE,
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 85 PERCENT
RANGE. EXPECT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO AGAIN DRIVE THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION, WITH THE GULF BREEZE INITIATING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF COAST AND SHIFTING INTO EAST
COAST AREAS FOR THE LATE/EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATEST HIGH-RES
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ISOLATED 3" OR HIGHER POSSIBLE, FOR WHICH WPC
LATEST OUTLOOK KEEPS ALL OF SOFLO UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4). IT ALSO MENTIONS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOFLO, ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW- MOVING OR STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS
OVER URBAN AREAS.
DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN
DRIVE MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER NORTHERN AREAS, AND LOW-
MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
VERY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON MONDAY, AS THE REMNANT
BOUNDARY OVER C FL DISSIPATES AND, AND HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING
OVER THE E CONUS PUSHES THE SECOND FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH AND
INTO C FL. THIS WILL KEEP THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE
DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE CYCLE REPEATS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS A LINGERING FRONT AROUND C FL THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPING
MAINLY AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE.
NEVERTHELESS, THE OVERALL WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM, BUT WITH THE RISK FOR FLOODING DECREASING EACH DAY
AS MODEL PWATS SHOW VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR NORMALS BY WED. STILL,
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS REMAINING IN THE 70-75 PERCENT RANGE.
SEA BREEZES WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL
PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE ON STORM INITIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH FL THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND ERRATIC WINDS. SE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
SITES THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT APF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHS-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND CONTINUES REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, BECOMING GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID WEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY
WINDS BRIEFLY ACCOMPANYING THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 77 90 76 90 / 60 80 50 70
WEST KENDALL 76 90 76 90 / 60 80 50 70
OPA-LOCKA 77 91 76 91 / 60 80 50 70
HOMESTEAD 76 89 76 89 / 60 70 50 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 76 90 / 70 80 60 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 91 76 91 / 70 80 60 70
PEMBROKE PINES 77 92 76 92 / 60 80 50 70
WEST PALM BEACH 75 90 75 90 / 70 80 60 80
BOCA RATON 75 91 75 91 / 70 80 60 70
NAPLES 77 90 76 89 / 50 80 50 80
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF
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