111
FXUS62 KMFL 080739
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
339 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
MODEL AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSES DEPICT A DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH
DESCENDING UPON THE US EAST COAST, WHILE A SFC STATIONARY BOUNDARY
REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL FL. AN
ATTENDANT LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. MEANWHILE,
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA REMAINS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE A LITTLE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
IN GENERAL, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
DAYS AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS SOFLO, WITH PWATS
FROM MFL UPPER AIR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAINING IN THE 2.2-2.5"
RANGE. NBM AND ENSEMBLES KEEP HIGH-END POPS IN PLACE FOR THE SHORT
TERM, MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 85 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. ALSO,
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN VERY WEAK, WITH LIGHT S/SW FLOW PREVAILING
ACROSS THE AREA.
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD AGAIN BE THE FOCAL POINTS FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION. HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SHOW MAX RAINFALL IN THE 1-2" IN
GENERAL, BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY ISOLATED 3" OR HIGHER. WPC
IS KEEPING ALL OF SOFLO UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4), MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SLOW-MOVING OR
STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS OVER URBAN AREAS MAY PRODUCE THE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN URBAN METRO AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG (ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE), WITH
MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAIN.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD NOT PRECLUDE DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE, MAX TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE UPPER
80S OVER NORTHERN AREAS, AND LOW-MID 90S ELSEWHERE BEFORE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON TUESDAY, WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT STILL LINGERING ACROSS C FL
KEEPING ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. MAX POPS ALSO REMAIN IN THE
75-85% RANGE, AND A REPEAT OF DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
THE RATHER SOGGY/MOIST WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP A LINGERING FRONT AROUND C FL THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY, THEN VERY SLOWLY PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER SOFLO, WITH
ENSEMBLES STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A LOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER IN THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
THE OVERALL WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE RISK OF FLOODING WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE WED-THU
TIMEFRAME AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA. THEN BEGINNING ON FRI, DRIER AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILTER FROM THE NORTH AND POPS SLOWLY DECREASE. BUT ENOUGH REMNANT
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST HIGH-END SCATTERED
COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAYBE THE FIRST TRUE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE A
LIKELY DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FROPA. NOT MUCH COOLER,
BUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. GENERALLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
UNTIL AROUND 16Z, THEN SCT TO NUM THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS. L/V FLOW WILL AGAIN BECOME S/SW IN THE
7-10KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND CONTINUES TODAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS, BECOMING GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MID WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS BRIEFLY ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 90 77 90 78 / 90 70 70 40
WEST KENDALL 90 76 90 76 / 90 60 70 30
OPA-LOCKA 90 77 91 77 / 90 70 70 40
HOMESTEAD 89 76 89 76 / 80 60 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 76 90 77 / 90 70 70 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 90 77 91 78 / 90 70 80 50
PEMBROKE PINES 92 77 92 77 / 90 70 70 40
WEST PALM BEACH 90 76 90 76 / 90 70 80 60
BOCA RATON 91 75 91 76 / 90 70 80 50
NAPLES 90 77 89 77 / 80 70 80 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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