408
FXUS62 KMFL 091823
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
223 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED MOST OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
TO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN-MAKERS. LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVOLVES, ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS WELL. SOUTH FLORIDA
REMAINS STUCK ON THE SOUTHERLY SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH
THE WEEK, AND THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY PARKED TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE VERY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SYNOPTIC SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL KEEP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IN CHECK AND PINNED OVER THE
METRO AREAS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE NICELY WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 2.2
AND 2.5 INCHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THESE FEATURES ALL COMBINED WILL HELP TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS PEAK DIURNAL HEATING DESTABILIZES
THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES COMBINED WITH THE LONG AND
SKINNY SOUNDING PROFILE OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL
RATES RANGING AS HIGH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS COMBINED WITH A VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CONVECTIVE TRAINING WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL BE PINNED. BECAUSE OF THIS, WPC CONTINUES THE
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RISE TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOES SHOW SIGNS OF DEEPENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A RATHER POTENT
SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY, AND THEN
EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, THIS WILL HELP TO GIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SOME SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM AND WILL PUSH IT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH THE FRONT MOVING
OVER THE AREA, THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE POOLING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
GUIDANCE KEEPS PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.3 INCHES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT AND TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZES EACH DAY, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE STORM MOTION
REMAINING VERY SLOW COMBINED WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE, THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THIS COULD CREATE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHICH HAVE
BEEN ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY RISES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HOWEVER,
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS INDICATING A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE FEATURE IN QUESTION WILL BE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HOW FAR SOUTH OF A PUSH IT ACTUALLY GETS. THE GLOBAL
AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AS THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS A
MORE POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE
SUITE. THE STRONGER AND MORE POTENT TROUGH WOULD GIVE THE FRONT THE
PUSH IT NEEDS TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA, WHILE A WEAKER MID
LEVEL TROUGH WOULD KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER BY OVER THE REGION. IF THE
FRONT WERE TO PASS THROUGH, THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME DRIER AIR
PUSHING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WOULD LOWER THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IF THE FRONT
DOES NOT PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH, THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES IN PLACE A BIT LONGER. THE LATEST FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF
THE FORECAST MODELS AND GRADUALLY LOWERS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT, HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH
MOST EAST COAST SITES SHOULD REMAIN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW THIS AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS REMAIN AT 2
FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS COULD
BRING AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAINLY TO THE PALM BEACHES
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 78 91 78 90 / 40 80 30 70
WEST KENDALL 76 91 76 90 / 30 80 20 70
OPA-LOCKA 77 92 77 91 / 40 80 30 70
HOMESTEAD 77 90 76 90 / 40 70 20 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 91 77 90 / 40 80 40 70
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 92 78 90 / 50 80 40 80
PEMBROKE PINES 77 92 77 93 / 40 80 30 70
WEST PALM BEACH 75 91 76 90 / 60 80 40 80
BOCA RATON 75 92 76 91 / 50 80 40 80
NAPLES 78 90 78 90 / 70 70 30 70
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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