646
FXUS62 KMFL 111121
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A COUPLE HOURS FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
OBSERVATIONS FROM INTERIOR AND PORTIONS OF METRO SOUTH FL ARE
SHOWING POCKETS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. THIS SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER HOUR.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AND PUSH FURTHER SOUTHWARD
EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS BEEN PARKED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD INTO REGION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SOUTH
FLORIDA, WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO TAKE ON
MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL OVER THE
REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY AND EVEN HEADING INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SHOWN IN THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH THE SKINNY SATURATED PROFILE ACROSS THE VERTICAL
COLUMN AND PWAT VALUES FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.4 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
AS DIURNAL HEATING DEVELOPS AND HELPS TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE,
THE SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND SLOWLY TRY TO PUSH INLAND. THESE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY WILL
PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PLENTY
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES, SOME OF WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
POTENTIAL OF CONVECTIVE TRAINING COMBINED WITH HIGH RAINFALL
RATES, ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. ALL OF THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE GROUNDS
BEING ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL, A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS
SET UP IN COMBINATION OF WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING TAKES PLACE. IN
GENERAL, AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE COULD
BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORM TRAINING OCCURS, BUT THIS
WOULD BE A WORST CASE SCENARIO, OR IN OTHER WORDS, A 1 IN 10
CHANCE OF HAPPENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THEY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S, WHILE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO
CHANGE OVER THE REGION AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
AND THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND HAS BACKED OFF
OF THE FASTER, MORE INTENSE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH INTO A
CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AS IT WILL TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT EXACTLY HOW
FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA THE FRONT ACTUALLY MAKES IT AS SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS IT STALLING OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. BECAUSE
MODELS STILL DISAGREE AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ACTUALLY
PUSHES OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST STILL
REMAINS A BIT ON THE HIGHER SIDE. HOWEVER, WITH THE AMPLIFICATION
OF THE TROUGH TAKING MORE TIME, THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.
AS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH EVENTUALLY DOES CLOSE
OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE PLACEMENT OF
THIS LOW DOES DIFFER A BIT AS THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE IT CENTERED
OVER THE CAROLINAS, WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING IT AS FAR
SOUTH AND INTENSIFIES IT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SURFACE, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AND BECOME EAST NORTHEASTERLY AS
MONDAY PROGRESSES. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MAY START TO INTENSIFY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING STALLED OUT TO
THE SOUTH. WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT TO THE
SOUTH, THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, CHANCES WILL NOT BE
AS HIGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SOME DRIER AIR DOES TRY TO WORK
IN FROM THE NORTH.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MOISTURE MAY START TO INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS THAT THE BOUNDARY
TRIES TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. SINCE THIS IS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN HIGH AS GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY BEING
PULLED BACK NORTH. THE LATEST FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST MODELS AND STARTS TO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT BY INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ON SATURDAY ONLY RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, THEY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE
CEILINGS START TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY 5-10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES TODAY AS A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 91 77 89 77 / 80 50 80 50
WEST KENDALL 91 75 90 74 / 80 40 80 50
OPA-LOCKA 92 77 90 75 / 80 50 80 50
HOMESTEAD 91 75 89 74 / 70 50 80 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 77 89 76 / 80 50 80 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 91 77 89 77 / 80 50 80 50
PEMBROKE PINES 93 77 91 76 / 80 50 80 50
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 88 76 / 80 50 70 50
BOCA RATON 91 76 90 76 / 80 50 70 50
NAPLES 90 76 89 74 / 80 50 70 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF
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