928
FXUS62 KMFL 121103
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
703 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY DIVING DOWN ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST, AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF. ON
SATURDAY THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS
AND EXTENDS BACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
WEEK WILL FINALLY SHIFT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY BEFORE
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION AND STALLING OUT OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS ON SATURDAY.
WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL OVER THE AREA AS PWAT VALUES HOVER
BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.3 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES START TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND ONCE AGAIN, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO CONTAIN VERY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES COMBINED WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY BEING SATURATED
FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY START
TO CHANGE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH THE DEEP LAYER
TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND PWATS WILL START
TO FALL BELOW 2 INCHES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN.
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT HAS BEEN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY MAINLY DUE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS FROM THIS PAST WEEKS RAINFALL. ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
CREATE ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS AS THE GROUNDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ABSORB AS
MUCH OF THE WATER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH HAVING THE AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSING OFF
INTO A MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. THIS BROAD
MID LEVEL LOW WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK AS IT TRIES TO RETROGRADE EVER SO SLOWLY
OFF TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, CYCLOGENESIS WILL TRY TO
TAKE PLACE AS A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP IN
THE ATLANTIC OFF OF THE GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA COASTLINE DURING
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
HELP TO DRAG IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS A BIT HIGHER FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE
DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO PUSH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
STALLED OUT OVER THE STRAITS. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT DAILY CONVECTION CHANCES, COVERAGE
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH IS IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE PWATS WILL BE MAXIMIZED. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL STILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WHILE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING IS ONGOING AND THEY
WILL BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MOST AREAS.
MOVING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK, UNCERTAINTY RISES IN
THE FORECAST EVEN FURTHER AS SOME OF THE LONGER TERM GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT WHAT IS LEFT OF THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT IN
THE STRAITS GETS DRAGGED BACK UP TO THE NORTH OVER THE REGION AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES. GUIDANCE DOES REMAIN IN
DISAGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO WHAT IS ACTUALLY LEFT OF THE FRONT AND
HOW FAR NORTH IT ACTUALLY MAKES IT. HOWEVER, AS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW INCREASES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MOVING BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION, THE LATEST FORECAST TAKES
A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND INCREASES THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA WIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AND WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NE 5-10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING MAY RESULT IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS REMAIN AT
1 TO 3 FEET. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AND A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS LINGERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 89 75 87 74 / 80 70 60 40
WEST KENDALL 89 74 87 73 / 80 60 70 40
OPA-LOCKA 90 75 88 74 / 80 60 60 40
HOMESTEAD 89 75 86 74 / 80 70 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 75 87 74 / 80 60 60 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 89 76 87 75 / 80 60 60 40
PEMBROKE PINES 91 75 89 74 / 80 60 60 40
WEST PALM BEACH 88 75 87 74 / 80 70 60 30
BOCA RATON 89 75 88 74 / 80 60 60 40
NAPLES 89 74 89 74 / 70 50 50 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF
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