256
FXUS62 KMFL 180450
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1250 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF LOW IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC) REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
BOUNDARY IS KEEPING TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH TODAY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
LOCATIONS THAT END UP RECEIVING MULTIPLE ROUNDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 2.1 TO 2.3 INCH RANGE WHICH IS NOW OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS DATE. ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING AS WELL AS WHERE THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
FALL TODAY (JUST OFFSHORE OR DIRECTLY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO),
THE ATMOSPHERE IS DEFINITELY PRIMED FOR BURSTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
A VERY SHORT TIME. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE FLOODING FOR
THE EAST COAST METRO OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS MEANS THAT THERE
IS A 5-15% CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING WITHIN A 25 MILE RADIUS OF A LOCATION. HREF LPMM PAINTS A
COUPLE OF 4-6" BULLSEYES ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS, AND THIS
IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT. IT WILL JUST COME
DOWN TO WHICH AREAS RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER LOWER TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND THE COOLING INFLUENCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
FORECASTED HIGHS AREA-WIDE WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
ON FRIDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARDS, WHICH
SHOULD FACILITATE A GRADUAL DOWNTREND IN DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE DAY. TO START THE DAY, PWATS WILL RANGE FROM THE 2.0 TO 2.2 INCH
RANGE, AND BY THE TIME THE SUN SETS, PWATS COULD PLUMMET TO THE 1.7
TO 1.9 INCH RANGE. DESPITE THE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE, MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WE REACH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR THE EAST COAST METRO OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUD COVER LESSENING ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY , HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS,
WITH FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
DEVELOPING FEATURE MAY RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF DRIER AIR MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WHICH MAY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DURING
THE WEEKEND AS OPPOSED TO THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER, AND FORECAST RAINFALL
CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY CURRENTLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS IN THE 50-60% RANGE. THE LESSENING OF MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS REMAINING THE MAIN
FOCI OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL
LIKELY FOCUS THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS
EACH AFTERNOON DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S.
AFTER PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION FOR WHAT HAS FELT LIKE
WEEKS, MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS OF THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
INDEED PANS OUT, THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA COUPLED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. SEA BREEZES WOULD BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST. TRIED TO INDICATE MOST
LIKELY TIMING WINDOWS, BUT IMPACTS COULD BEGIN EARLIER THAN NOTED
HERE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT,
AND GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
A MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS REMAIN AT 1
TO 2 FEET. PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY NEAR THE MOST ROBUST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY BEACHES TODAY AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS AND A NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS LINGERS. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY BEACHES.
AS EAST- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, THE
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 77 89 78 89 / 50 60 40 60
WEST KENDALL 76 89 76 89 / 50 60 30 60
OPA-LOCKA 76 89 78 90 / 50 60 30 60
HOMESTEAD 76 88 76 88 / 50 60 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 88 77 89 / 50 60 40 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 88 78 89 / 50 60 40 60
PEMBROKE PINES 76 91 78 91 / 50 60 30 60
WEST PALM BEACH 76 88 77 89 / 50 50 40 50
BOCA RATON 76 89 76 89 / 50 60 40 50
NAPLES 75 91 76 91 / 20 50 20 50
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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