233
FXUS62 KMFL 070735
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 324 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS TODAY AS SWELL AND
ONSHORE FLOW PERSIST, BUT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
- MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY THIS WEEK
WITH THE KING TIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND SFC ANALYSES DEPICT A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE SE CONUS, WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE BEING PUSHED
SOUTH BY A TILTED TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM TX ALL THE WAY THROUGH ME.
FOR FL, A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY LINGERS AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE PENINSULA, WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE TRAPPED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
KEEPING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALSO REMAIN TIGHT TODAY AND KEEPING BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOFLO, STRONGEST AROUND THE EAST COAST WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
MFL 00Z SOUNDING AND MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERTICALLY WET PROFILE
AND KEEPING PWATS IN THE 2.0-2.5 INCHES TODAY. HIGH-RES AND NBM
GUIDANCE DEPICT ANOTHER DAY WITH MAX POPS IN THE 70-80% RANGE,
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. AND WHILE BEST CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE
SOUTH OF I-75, MAINLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX WILL DRAG THE
ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN GA/NORTH FL BORDER. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND BRINGS SOME DRY AIR
ALOFT. THIS WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
POPS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE SOUTH OF I-75,
AND 30-50 ELSEWHERE.
THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP IN KEEPING MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ERODES AND A RATHER
STRONG SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON THU AFTERNOON. THE
PREVAILING E FLOW WILL RESULT IN INITIAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC METRO AREAS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN
SPREADING WESTWARD. POPS JUMP INTO THE 80-85% FOR THU AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ACROSS SOFLO. SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
CONTINUE ON FRI AFTERNOON, BUT STILL MAINLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO EXPERIENCE WHAT WE COULD CALL THE
FIRST HINT OF FALL SEASON WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT. MID LEVEL DRIER
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE, ALONG WITH A COOLER AIR MASS DROPPING
MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S. PERHAPS THE MOST TANGIBLE CHANGE
WILL BE IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS, WHICH MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
OVERALL, CHANGES SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST, BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL SURELY BE REQUIRED AS NEW MODEL DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS PERIODS TODAY WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. E WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TODAY AS EASTERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY. HAZARDOUS SEAS 6-8 FEET ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALM BEACH COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS COULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK,
POTENTIALLY NECESSITATING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF ADVISORIES.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN LIKELY ALONG THE EAST
COAST DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDES, THE KING TIDE CYCLE, AND
ONGOING E/NE SWELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 87 77 87 77 / 80 50 60 40
WEST KENDALL 87 76 87 76 / 80 40 70 40
OPA-LOCKA 88 78 88 77 / 80 50 60 40
HOMESTEAD 86 76 87 76 / 80 40 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 77 87 76 / 80 50 60 50
N FT LAUDERDALE 86 78 87 77 / 80 50 60 40
PEMBROKE PINES 89 78 90 78 / 80 50 60 40
WEST PALM BEACH 86 77 87 76 / 70 40 50 40
BOCA RATON 86 77 87 76 / 80 40 50 50
NAPLES 90 76 90 76 / 60 20 50 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page