058
FXUS62 KMFL 071634
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1234 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY ADVECTING FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FAST
PROPOGATON MOTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF CONVECTION, THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIMITED.
ACCORDINGLY, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS REMOVED THE
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS REDUCED, RUN-OFF FROM BURSTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING HIGH-
TIDE CYCLES COULD BE SLOW TO DRAIN WHICH MAY RESULT IN STANDING
WATER ACROSS LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND SFC ANALYSES DEPICT A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE SE CONUS, WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE BEING PUSHED
SOUTH BY A TILTED TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM TX ALL THE WAY THROUGH ME.
FOR FL, A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY LINGERS AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE PENINSULA, WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE TRAPPED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
KEEPING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALSO REMAIN TIGHT TODAY AND KEEPING BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOFLO, STRONGEST AROUND THE EAST COAST WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
MFL 00Z SOUNDING AND MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERTICALLY WET PROFILE
AND KEEPING PWATS IN THE 2.0-2.5 INCHES TODAY. HIGH-RES AND NBM
GUIDANCE DEPICT ANOTHER DAY WITH MAX POPS IN THE 70-80% RANGE,
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. AND WHILE BEST CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE
SOUTH OF I-75, MAINLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX WILL DRAG THE
ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN GA/NORTH FL BORDER. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND BRINGS SOME DRY AIR
ALOFT. THIS WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
POPS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE SOUTH OF I-75,
AND 30-50 ELSEWHERE.
THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP IN KEEPING MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ERODES AND A RATHER
STRONG SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON THU AFTERNOON. THE
PREVAILING E FLOW WILL RESULT IN INITIAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC METRO AREAS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN
SPREADING WESTWARD. POPS JUMP INTO THE 80-85% FOR THU AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ACROSS SOFLO. SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
CONTINUE ON FRI AFTERNOON, BUT STILL MAINLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO EXPERIENCE WHAT WE COULD CALL THE
FIRST HINT OF FALL SEASON WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT. MID LEVEL DRIER
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE, ALONG WITH A COOLER AIR MASS DROPPING
MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S. PERHAPS THE MOST TANGIBLE CHANGE
WILL BE IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS, WHICH MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
OVERALL, CHANGES SEEM TO BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST, BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL SURELY BE REQUIRED AS NEW MODEL DATA BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SCT SHRA WITH EMBEDEED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BREEZY EASTERLY OF 10-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY OVERNIGHT BUT LESSEN TO 8-10 KTS. SHRA/TSRA
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST WITH SUB-MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IF
ACTIVITY DIRECTLY PASSES OVERHEAD OF TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TODAY AS EASTERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY. HAZARDOUS SEAS 6-8 FEET ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALM BEACH COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS COULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK,
POTENTIALLY NECESSITATING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF ADVISORIES.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN LIKELY ALONG THE EAST
COAST DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDES, THE KING TIDE CYCLE, AND
ONGOING E/NE SWELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 77 87 77 87 / 50 60 40 80
WEST KENDALL 76 87 76 87 / 40 70 40 90
OPA-LOCKA 78 88 77 87 / 50 60 40 80
HOMESTEAD 76 87 76 86 / 40 60 50 80
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 87 76 86 / 50 60 50 80
N FT LAUDERDALE 78 87 77 86 / 50 60 40 80
PEMBROKE PINES 78 90 78 89 / 50 60 40 80
WEST PALM BEACH 77 87 76 86 / 40 50 40 80
BOCA RATON 77 87 76 87 / 40 50 50 80
NAPLES 76 90 76 89 / 20 50 20 60
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...HADI
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