774
FXUS62 KMFL 081741
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
ACARS ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS (FROM AIRCRAFT LANDING AT
KMIA/KFLL/KPBI) AND 17Z MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATES AN ATMOSPHERE
THAT IS SATURATED AT THE LOW-LEVELS BUT HAS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
DRY AIR AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF SHALLOW QUICK-MOVING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO FROM TIME TO
TIME. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOW PAST THE PEAK OF THIS KING TIDE CYCLE,
HIGH TIDES WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SUBSIDE TO NORMAL LEVELS. THUS,
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL WATER LEVELS DURING HIGH TIDES MAY RESULT IN SLOW-TO-DRAIN
STANDING WATER ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HASN'T CHANGED MUCH WITH LATEST MODEL
UPDATES. SFC ANALYSES SHOW THE TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DRAGGING THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO DEEP SE
CONUS, WHILE THE LINGERING BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL STRAITS HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. MEANWHILE, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW PUSHING DRIER AIR
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH POPS AND
THUNDERSTORM SUPPORT DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY ALL THE WAY INTO THE
LAKE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BUT A MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FURTHER SOUTH, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL LINGERING CLOSER TO
THE TIP OF THE PENINSULA. HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
AGAIN RESIDE SOUTH OF I-75, WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE
EAST COAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL PWATS ALSO REFLECT THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH VALUES DROPPING
TO AROUND 1.5" NORTH AND BACK INTO THE 2.0-2.5" OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOFLO. CAMS HAD SOME DIFFICULTY YESTERDAY IN DEPICTING THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL FLOW CONVERGENCE, BUT ENSEMBLES
AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING ANOTHER
BOUT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY ADJUSTMENT
WILL BE THE OVERALL COVERAGE, WHICH SEEMS TO FOCUS ON EAST COAST
AREAS AROUND MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, WHERE 60-65 POPS
REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE BREAKING
DOWN FURTHER, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX TODAY AND ALLOW FOR A
DECREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS. BUT PERIODS OF BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.
FOR THURSDAY, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ERODES QUICKLY AS THE DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE SE CONUS PUSHES EAST AND DRAGS THE SFC FRONT ALL THE WAY
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP SOFLO IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
FROPA, WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE BRINGING POPS BACK INTO THE 70-
80% RANGE. THEREFORE, EXPECT AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THU
AFTERNOON.
THE OVERALL CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO HELP
IN KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, MAYBE UP TO 90 OVER
WEST COAST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S INLAND, AND IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
FRIDAY SEEMS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, ENSEMBLES SHOW A NON-TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BASICALLY AROUND THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE FROPA TO ADVECT DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW INTO FLORIDA FOR
THE WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL, THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD EXPERIENCE WHAT WE COULD
CALL THE FIRST HINT OF FALL SEASON WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MID
LEVEL DRIER AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE, ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIR
MASS DROPPING MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S. BUT THE GREATER CHANGE
WILL OCCUR WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS, WHICH MAY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SCT SHRA & OCCASIONAL TSRA CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS AT TERMINALS. WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF AN EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH A LESSENING
OF WINDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
INCREASING SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL FURTHER IMPROVE TODAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. BUT SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS RESIDUAL SWELL AND PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. WINDS
COULD INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, POTENTIALLY
NECESSITATING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF ADVISORIES. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE
TODAY.
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN LIKELY ALONG THE EAST
COAST DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDES, THE KING TIDE CYCLE, AND
ONGOING E/NE SWELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 77 87 75 85 / 50 80 60 70
WEST KENDALL 76 87 74 86 / 50 80 60 70
OPA-LOCKA 77 87 75 87 / 50 80 60 70
HOMESTEAD 76 87 74 86 / 50 70 60 70
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 86 75 84 / 60 70 60 60
N FT LAUDERDALE 77 87 75 84 / 50 70 60 60
PEMBROKE PINES 78 89 75 87 / 50 80 60 70
WEST PALM BEACH 76 86 75 85 / 50 70 60 70
BOCA RATON 76 87 75 86 / 50 60 60 60
NAPLES 76 90 74 88 / 10 50 30 40
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...HADI
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