811
FXUS62 KMFL 091718
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
118 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 112 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
FRIDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS CONTINUES ALONG THE
EAST COAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR OR LONG TERM FORECAST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. STILL A LOW END FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO, ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE STORMS PASS OVER THE SAME AREA
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
AS FOR THE TIDES, DID EXTEND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
EAST COAST THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TOMORROW MORNING, AND
THEN TRANSITION TO A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
MINOR FLOODING OVER SEVERAL MORE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THE COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SW FL WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
LATEST SFC ANALYSES SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WHILE THE REMNANTS OF A
LINGERING BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL STRAITS HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THOSE FEATURES BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN
TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WILL
ERODE RATHER QUICKLY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA, AND ITS ASSOCIATED AFOREMENTIONED FRONT REACHES THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN SOFLO EXPERIENCING A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE TODAY AND
THROUGH FRIDAY.
NBM AND ENSEMBLES HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TODAY A LITTLE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT WITH MAX VALUES STILL REACHING THE 70% RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PWATS WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES. THEREFORE, THERE IS AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS,
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ONLY CAVEAT IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH. LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO STOP THE FRONT JUST SHY OF REACHING SOFLO ON
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FROPA FOR
LONGER TIME. IN RESPONSE, POP/WX COVERAGE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HAS ALSO INCREASED INTO THE 70-75% RANGE, HIGHEST ALONG MIAMI-DADE
AND BROWARD METRO AREAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1-3" RANGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4" OR HIGHER POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN. TRAINING OF CELLS COULD ALSO RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING AS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE BUILDS UP.
WHILE NOT IDEAL, THE ATMOSPHERIC SETUP DOMINATED BY THE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH AND LAPSE RATES A LITTLE STEEPER TODAY MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON. AS CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES, MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 80S, UP TO 90 OVER WEST
COAST LOCATIONS, AND COOLING DOWN A BIT ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND, AND IN THE UPPER 70S
NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS DEPICT A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN WEATHER PATTERN
FOR SOFLO AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BASICALLY AROUND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE TROUGH ALOFT SEEM TO WEAKEN
RATHER QUICKLY BY SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS TO BE ADVECTED INTO SOFLO BY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DRIER AND PLEASANT WITH DECREASED
HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FROPA, RESULTING IN WHAT
COULD BE CALLED THE FIRST HINT OF FALL SEASON WEATHER BEHIND THE
FRONT. SATURDAY MAY STILL SEE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THE
LINGERING LEFTOVER MOISTURE, BUT POPS DROP TO MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS THE MID LEVEL DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES, THE RESULTING
COOLER AIR MASS WILL DROP MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S. BUT THE
GREATER CHANGE WILL OCCUR WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS, WHICH DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
DROPPING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. SCT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY RESULT
IN BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
INCREASING WINDS TODAY MAY BRING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FROM LATER TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT
FOR NOW, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE
CLOSELY MONITORING UPCOMING FORECAST UPDATES. ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DEVELOPS MAY ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF ROUGH SEAS AND
GUSTY WINDS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL TODAY WILL
KEEP THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE.
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN LIKELY ALONG THE EAST
COAST DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDES, THE KING TIDE CYCLE, AND
ONGOING E/NE SWELL. THE WEST COAST MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE ISOLATED
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 76 85 74 87 / 80 80 60 50
WEST KENDALL 74 85 73 87 / 70 80 50 50
OPA-LOCKA 75 86 74 87 / 80 80 50 50
HOMESTEAD 75 85 73 86 / 80 80 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 84 73 86 / 80 80 60 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 84 74 86 / 70 80 50 40
PEMBROKE PINES 76 87 75 88 / 80 80 50 50
WEST PALM BEACH 74 84 73 85 / 70 80 50 40
BOCA RATON 74 85 73 87 / 70 80 50 40
NAPLES 74 88 73 87 / 40 50 20 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF
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