376
FXUS62 KMFL 100734
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
334 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 242 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
- WHILE STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE, DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE EXPECTED
TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SUPERPOSITIONING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY AND
DEEPEN THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO START TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY THE END OF
THE DAY SATURDAY, A WELL DEFINED AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE GA COAST.
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE TODAY, AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA AND
WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
WITH PWATS ON THE UPPER END OF CLIMATOLOGY AND WEAK/VARIABLE FLOW
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS, SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. EXACTLY WHERE THESE SET UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION. WHILE 1-2" WILL
BE COMMON IN THE MORE ROBUST STORMS, A REASONABLE WORST CASE
COULD RESULT IN 3-5" FALLING OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STARTS TO WRAP UP OVERNIGHT, MID/UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION AND PUT AN END TO
THE HEAVY RAIN/ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT. IT'LL PROBABLY TAKE
THROUGH SATURDAY TO GET THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA,
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
WE START TO RUN INTO DIFFERING SCENARIOS IN THE ENSEMBLES AS WE
ENTER THE LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. IT ALL SEEMS TO COME DOWN
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND WHETHER A SHORTWAVE
CUTS OFF, OR A MORE FULL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH REMAINS INTACT.
THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW MUCH LATITUDE THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW GAINS AND JUST HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND HOW QUICKLY. ABOUT A THIRD OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
CUTOFF THE SHORTWAVE AND KEEP THE SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST UNTIL IT WEAKENS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR US. AS IT STANDS NOW, MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT USHERS DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND KEEPS IN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WHILE HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD FALL INTO THE 40-60% RANGE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AWAY FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE TAF,
THOUGH ON-AND-OFF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE PRESENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STORMS MAY CLIP OUR BROWARD AND PALM BEACH TERMINALS THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH
INTO MIAMI-DADE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BY 01-03Z
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERALLY NORTHERLY
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT
STRENGTHENS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TODAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, AND VEER ONSHORE AND BRIEFLY SOUTHERLY
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK WINDS
ACROSS BOTH COASTS SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT, BUT REMAIN
BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD
WILL BE NORTHERLY SWELL FUNNELING DOWN THE EAST COAST ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. IN A WORST CASE, THIS COULD BRIEFLY
BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS TO OUR PALM BEACH COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CREATE ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH
RISK FOR STRONG AND FREQUENT RIPS ALONG THE PALM BEACHES THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DOWNWARD TREND OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER MODERATE FLOODING DURING PERIODS OF
HIGH TIDE ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. MINOR FLOODING LEVELS
WILL THEN BE LIKELY ON SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE IMPACTS BEGINS TO TAPER OFF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 85 73 85 72 / 90 60 50 30
WEST KENDALL 85 72 86 71 / 90 60 50 20
OPA-LOCKA 85 73 87 72 / 90 60 50 30
HOMESTEAD 85 72 85 72 / 90 60 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 72 85 72 / 90 60 40 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 85 73 85 72 / 90 60 40 20
PEMBROKE PINES 86 74 87 72 / 90 60 50 30
WEST PALM BEACH 84 73 85 71 / 90 60 40 20
BOCA RATON 85 72 86 70 / 90 60 40 20
NAPLES 86 73 85 71 / 70 40 20 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-
172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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