847
FXUS62 KMFL 102319
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ZIPPERED DOWN THE
EAST COAST METRO THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING SOME FLOODING ISSUES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL ROADS BECAUSE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
COINCIDED WITH HIGH TIDE WHICH PREVENTED THE RAINFALL FROM
DRAINING IN SOME LOCATIONS. THAT AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOW
IMPACTING MIAMI-DADE, AND WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF
STREET FLOODING ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE'RE GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE PEAK OF THE
HIGH TIDE SO DRAINAGE ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE MORE EFFICIENT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FL, MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.
ONLY HEADLINE ADDED THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY. THIS IS FOR ELEVATED SEAS TO AROUND 8
FEET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS
ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SUPERPOSITIONING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL AMPLIFY AND
DEEPEN THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO START TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY THE END OF
THE DAY SATURDAY, A WELL DEFINED AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE GA COAST.
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE TODAY, AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA AND
WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
WITH PWATS ON THE UPPER END OF CLIMATOLOGY AND WEAK/VARIABLE FLOW
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS, SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. EXACTLY WHERE THESE SET UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION. WHILE 1-2" WILL
BE COMMON IN THE MORE ROBUST STORMS, A REASONABLE WORST CASE
COULD RESULT IN 3-5" FALLING OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STARTS TO WRAP UP OVERNIGHT, MID/UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION AND PUT AN END TO
THE HEAVY RAIN/ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT. IT'LL PROBABLY TAKE
THROUGH SATURDAY TO GET THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA,
SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
WE START TO RUN INTO DIFFERING SCENARIOS IN THE ENSEMBLES AS WE
ENTER THE LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. IT ALL SEEMS TO COME DOWN
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND WHETHER A SHORTWAVE
CUTS OFF, OR A MORE FULL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH REMAINS INTACT.
THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW MUCH LATITUDE THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW GAINS AND JUST HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND HOW QUICKLY. ABOUT A THIRD OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
CUTOFF THE SHORTWAVE AND KEEP THE SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST UNTIL IT WEAKENS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR US. AS IT STANDS NOW, MOST OF THE
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT USHERS DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND KEEPS IN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WHILE HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD FALL INTO THE 40-60% RANGE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VICINITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A
MAINLY DRY PERIOD EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, SO INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE
SOUTHEAST SITES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT
STRENGTHENS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TODAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, AND VEER ONSHORE AND BRIEFLY SOUTHERLY
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK WINDS
ACROSS BOTH COASTS SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT, BUT REMAIN
BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD
WILL BE NORTHERLY SWELL FUNNELING DOWN THE EAST COAST ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. IN A WORST CASE, THIS COULD BRIEFLY
BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS TO OUR PALM BEACH COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CREATE ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH
RISK FOR STRONG AND FREQUENT RIPS ALONG THE PALM BEACHES THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DOWNWARD TREND OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN
A CONCERN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 74 85 72 87 / 70 70 20 10
WEST KENDALL 73 86 71 87 / 70 60 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 74 86 72 87 / 60 70 20 10
HOMESTEAD 74 85 72 87 / 70 60 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 84 72 86 / 70 60 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 73 84 72 86 / 60 60 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 74 87 72 89 / 60 60 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 73 84 71 85 / 50 50 20 10
BOCA RATON 73 86 71 86 / 60 60 20 10
NAPLES 73 85 72 85 / 60 20 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...17
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