854
FXUS62 KMFL 110646
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
246 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
- SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY TODAY.
- NORTHERLY SWELL CREATES POOR MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS FOR
PALM BEACHES AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY A
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CONSOLIDATING AT
ITS BASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, AN
ELONGATED REFLECTION STRETCHES FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF,
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS
TROUGHING WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY, AND MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MATURES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, IT WILL WRAP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. AS IT DOES, A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP ALONG
THE FRONT, BUT GENERALLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ALONG THE
FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S. SUNDAY SHOULD
REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH WON'T COMPLETELY LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY ELONGATES AND FRACTURES. THE
NORTHERN HALF WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE THE
SOUTHERN HALF ADVECTS AROUND THE DEEP SOUTH RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO
THE GULF. ESSENTIALLY, THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE SOME SYNOPTIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT AS WELL AS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTIONS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER,
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SHOULD MEAN THAT THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OR HEAVY RAIN REMAIN LOW. INSTEAD, THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME THAT ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS,
WITH GENERALLY LOW RH THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
THIS MORNING, PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
APF AND PBI WHERE UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE
MOIST LOW-LEVELS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER
THE MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER IN
THE DAY THROUGH THE EVENING, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA AND COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTS IN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS, WITH WSW WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LATER
TONIGHT, A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHERLY ACROSS ALL COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL KEEP A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELL ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW WILL RESULT IN
A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS TODAY ACROSS OUR PALM BEACH
COUNTY WATERS. CAUTIONARY LEVEL SEAS SHOULD PERSIST IN THIS AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AFTER TODAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
NORTHERLY SWELL FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL CREATE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGHER SEAS THAT COULD RESULT IN 2-4' BREAKERS THIS WEEKEND
ALONG THE PALM BEACHES. WITH THE ELEVATED SURF COMES THE
HEIGHTENED RISK FOR STRONG AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS AS WELL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
AS EXPECTED, THE HIGH TIDE CRESTS ARE GRADUALLY FALLING. A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DUE TO HIGH TIDES EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOODING LEVELS EACH
CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 71 86 72 / 70 20 10 10
WEST KENDALL 84 70 86 70 / 70 20 20 10
OPA-LOCKA 85 71 87 72 / 70 20 20 10
HOMESTEAD 84 70 86 71 / 70 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 70 85 72 / 60 20 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 84 71 86 72 / 60 20 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 86 71 88 72 / 70 20 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 84 70 84 71 / 60 20 10 0
BOCA RATON 85 70 86 71 / 60 20 10 10
NAPLES 86 70 85 69 / 20 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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