043
FXUS62 KMFL 112241
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
641 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
AIRCRAFT DATA (ACARS) FROM SOFLO AIRPORTS AND 16Z RTMA ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION,
ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT GOES
EAST IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CORROBORATE THIS WELL, WITH
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND STABLE STRATUS CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND A FIELD OF SHALLOW TOPPED CUMULUS AND LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA FROM
KMIA, KFLL, AND KPBI INDICATE A NATURAL PROGRESSION OF DRIER AIR
IN THE VERTICAL COLUMN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS (HRRR,RAFS,WRF) AREN'T TOO EXCITED
ABOUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING PINNED JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE MIAMI-DADE METRO MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN EXTENT OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AS ACTIVITY
SLIDES EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD VIA SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW.
SHIFTING GEARS FROM PRECIPITATION TO TEMPERATURE, THE CONTINUED
ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATUS MAY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
A TAD LOWER THAN FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.
THE LATEST TIDAL CYCLE HAS OVERPERFORMED PREVIOUS FORECAST
GUIDANCE AND PREDICTIONS WITH ALL THREE OFFICIAL TIDAL GAUGES
(LAKE WORTH, PORT EVERGLADES, AND VIRGINIA KEY) CRESTING INTO THE
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. WITH THE NEXT TIDE CYCLE BEING THE LOWER OF
THE TWO, AND A CONTINUATION OF THE LUNAR CYCLE FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE FULL MOON, THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE EAST COAST WILL
BE MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY A
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CONSOLIDATING AT
ITS BASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, AN
ELONGATED REFLECTION STRETCHES FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF,
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS
TROUGHING WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY, AND MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MATURES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, IT WILL WRAP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. AS IT DOES, A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP ALONG
THE FRONT, BUT GENERALLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ALONG THE
FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S. SUNDAY SHOULD
REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH WON'T COMPLETELY LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY ELONGATES AND FRACTURES. THE
NORTHERN HALF WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE THE
SOUTHERN HALF ADVECTS AROUND THE DEEP SOUTH RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO
THE GULF. ESSENTIALLY, THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE SOME SYNOPTIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT AS WELL AS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTIONS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER,
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SHOULD MEAN THAT THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OR HEAVY RAIN REMAIN LOW. INSTEAD, THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME THAT ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS,
WITH GENERALLY LOW RH THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SKY
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, VEERING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTS IN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS, WITH WSW WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LATER
TONIGHT, A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHERLY ACROSS ALL COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL KEEP A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELL ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW WILL RESULT IN
A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS TODAY ACROSS OUR PALM BEACH
COUNTY WATERS. CAUTIONARY LEVEL SEAS SHOULD PERSIST IN THIS AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AFTER TODAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
NORTHERLY SWELL FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL CREATE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGHER SEAS THAT COULD RESULT IN 2-4' BREAKERS THIS WEEKEND
ALONG THE PALM BEACHES. WITH THE ELEVATED SURF COMES THE
HEIGHTENED RISK FOR STRONG AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS AS WELL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
AS EXPECTED, THE HIGH TIDE CRESTS ARE GRADUALLY FALLING. A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DUE TO HIGH TIDES EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOODING LEVELS EACH
CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 86 73 87 / 20 10 10 10
WEST KENDALL 70 86 70 88 / 20 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 71 87 73 88 / 20 10 10 10
HOMESTEAD 71 86 72 87 / 20 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 85 73 86 / 20 10 10 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 85 73 86 / 20 10 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 72 88 73 89 / 20 10 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 70 84 72 85 / 20 10 0 10
BOCA RATON 69 86 72 87 / 20 10 10 10
NAPLES 70 85 70 88 / 10 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ168.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...17
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