645
FXUS62 KMFL 122301
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
701 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
THE MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CHANNEL OF GOES EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REVEALS THE IMPRESSIVE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON OUR
WEATHER HERE LOCALLY IN SOUTH FLORIDA. CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING ANOMALOUSLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF BEFORE ADVECTING NORTH-EASTWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST ACARS (AIRCRAFT DATA) ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE DATA FROM SOFLO AIRPORTS DEPICTS THIS WELL WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW HAS SETTLED IN
ACROSS THE REGION USHERING IN REFRESHING (COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE
HAD TO DEAL WITH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS) DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION AS WELL
AS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO OUR EAST REVEALS THAT THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THAT BEING SAID, ACARS DATA STILL REVEALS
SOME RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT COULD RESULT
IN A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK ATLANTIC SEA-
BREEZE TODAY AS WINDS ALONG THE COAST VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY.
CAPPED BY THE PLETHORA OF DRY AIR ABOVE, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY RESULT IN A FEW POCKETS OF BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL BEFORE THE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN BASICALLY PARKED OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE WILL PULL AWAY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA AS THE SURFACE WIND FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS PWAT VALUES
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 1.1 INCHES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO AROUND
1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME
MORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WHILE THE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOL
AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO MID 60S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S.
WHILE THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW GENERALLY PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON MONDAY, GENERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STILL EXTEND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
KEEPING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES POTENTIALLY DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, PWAT VALUES OF 1.1 TO 1.3
INCHES WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE PWAT VALUES
MAY RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES. WITH THIS DRY AIR REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN ON MONDAY, MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK OFF AN ISOLATED
BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ALONG THE BREEZE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST, SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNDER A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVELS
BETWEEN TWO RIDGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD TOWARDS SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARRIBEAN. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME BRINGING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN WHICH WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST HEADING
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, MID LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL AMPLIFY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE WIND FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY
HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WIND SHIFT COMBINED WITH AN INCREASED
WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THE RETURN OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW TOPPED AND
SHORT LIVED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE ALOFT WOULD PREVENT ANY TYPE OF VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS TO AROUND 90 ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR AND DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN SITES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE STATUS QUO
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH
MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT AND BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. A NORTHERLY SWELL
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY COULD RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS, HOWEVER, THESE SEAS WILL DROP AND RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET
FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
WITH A LINGERING NORTHERLY SWELL IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE PALM BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE BROWARD AND MIAMI
DADE BEACHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 87 73 87 / 20 10 10 10
WEST KENDALL 71 87 72 87 / 20 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 72 87 73 88 / 20 10 10 10
HOMESTEAD 72 86 73 86 / 20 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 86 73 85 / 10 10 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 86 73 86 / 10 10 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 72 89 73 89 / 10 10 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 71 86 72 85 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 71 87 72 87 / 10 0 0 0
NAPLES 69 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...17
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