396
FXUS62 KMFL 140550
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PALM BEACHES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BROWARD AND
MIAMI DADE COUNTY BEACHES.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY START TO PUSH TO THE EAST TODAY INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME, A RATHER STRONG AND LARGE MID
LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
START TO EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE
WILL SHIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL AND
WILL GRADUALLY ENCOMPASS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE MOVING FURTHER EASTWARD TODAY WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS PARKED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND IN THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST THAT CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER
THE AREA.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION TODAY AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS PWAT VALUES
FALLING BELOW 1 INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WHILE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE FOUND
SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY, THEY BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
WELL AND WILL RANGE FROM 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WHILE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY, THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY, ENOUGH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR ALOFT, ANY SHOWER THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER LOW TOPPED,
HOWEVER, A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.
WHILE SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, ONE FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A SECONDARY WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, SOME SUBTLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE LATER
IN THE DAY TO SPARK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE LOW TOPPED AS WELL AS SHORT LIVED AND FAST MOVING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION. IT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING FURTHER EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGHING TAKES PLACE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGHING WILL GIVE THE WEAKENING SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WIND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY, THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WITH JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, COMBINED WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE, THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT, MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AT BEST. ANY SHOWER THAT
DOES DEVELOP, HOWEVER, WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY BE JUST A TOUCH
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS LOWER 80S ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN
AND GIVES WAY TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AN
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE REST OF SUNDAY PROGRESSES. AT THE SURFACE, RATHER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
WILL BRING RATHER DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE
EAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL CAUSE
A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
THE FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THIS BEING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COMBINED WITH DISAGREEMENT IN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, WITH SIGNALS SHOWING RATHER STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK,
THE LATEST FORECAST DOES TAKE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND INCREASES
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE AROUND 14Z
AND WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL THEN VEER AND BECOME MORE EAST NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL WILL CAUSE SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO REMAIN AT 3 TO 5
FEET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THESE SEAS MAY INCREASE BEHIND
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
DUE TO A LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ALONG WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PALM
BEACHES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTY
BEACHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY
INCREASE ACROSS ALL EAST COAST BEACHES DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 86 72 86 72 / 10 0 10 10
WEST KENDALL 87 70 87 71 / 10 0 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 87 71 87 72 / 0 0 10 10
HOMESTEAD 86 71 86 71 / 10 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 72 85 72 / 0 0 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 86 72 86 73 / 0 0 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 88 72 88 73 / 0 0 10 10
WEST PALM BEACH 86 72 85 73 / 0 10 10 20
BOCA RATON 86 71 86 72 / 0 10 10 20
NAPLES 88 69 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC
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