920
FXUS62 KMFL 290538
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FOR MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND
MONROE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- STRONGER COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG IT.
- FIRST PROLONGED TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER ARRIVES BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A WEAK FRONT, LOCATED ACROSS THE PENINSULA NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF SOFL AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE FRONT MIGHT LINGER
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, KEEPING SMALL
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST FL OVERNIGHT AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH WED MORNING AND THIS WAS THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE
FORECAST. ON TRACK FOR EVERYTHING ELSE, WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING
THE UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 TODAY AND THE MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A LOW-AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE HAS ITS CORE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PER A 06Z
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, AND HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS DEEPER
INTO THE SOUTHEAST, THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION, THERE REMAINS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
(20-40%) OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, SHORTWAVES WILL
SUPERPOSITION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION, WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
OCCLUDE AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
WE'LL GET SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR TONIGHT, WHICH WILL
ALLOW LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO THE
LOW 70S ALONG THE COASTS. A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT, WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE BEING SO FAR TO OUR NORTH, WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
IT WON'T BE UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FORCES THE SECOND FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION THAT WE'LL SEE MORE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
AS THE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM FILLS AND MOVES FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY, ADVECTING LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH FLORIDA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. WITH DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IN PLACE, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT
AS IS PASSES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR, AND THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COASTS. WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT, HIGHS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THESE
FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
VCSH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FROM FXE THROUGH MIA FOR MUCH OF THE TAF.
SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND EITHER
OFFSHORE OR JUST ON THE COAST WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS THAT IMPACT THE
TERMINAL, BUT DUE TO THE SPORADIC NATURE OF THE RESTRICTION, DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF. AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT,
SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END, HOWEVER, APF HAS THE BEST SHOT
AT EXPERIENCING A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE THEY COMPLETELY DISSIPATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE GENTLE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH MODERATE TO A FRESH BREEZE AS A STRONGER FRONT
APPROACHES AND MELISSA MOVES NE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY. A 2-4 FOOT NORTHERLY SWELL WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
GULF STREAM ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SEAS INCREASING FURTHER ON THURSDAY
TO ABOUT 5-7 FEET IN BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
BEACH CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON THURSDAY AS MELISSA MOVES NE
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS AND
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED SURF
AND A HIGH RIP RISK ON THURSDAY. WHILE AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IMPROVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 86 69 81 62 / 20 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 87 67 82 61 / 20 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 87 69 82 61 / 20 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 86 68 81 62 / 20 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 68 80 61 / 20 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 85 68 79 61 / 10 10 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 88 69 83 62 / 20 10 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 84 67 78 59 / 10 10 0 0
BOCA RATON 86 67 81 60 / 10 10 0 0
NAPLES 84 70 79 61 / 0 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ069-168-172.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-
657-676.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page