484
FXUS62 KMFL 291131
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
731 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 729 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY.
- POOR MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- FIRST PROLONGED TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SATELLITE AND MODEL ANALYSIS DEPICT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROUGH, WITH
SHORTWAVES OFF THE NE COAST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY UP THROUGH THE PLAINS. A 06Z SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
FAR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE NW ATLANTIC, AND A NARROW RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE MOSTLY NERLY FLOW WILL BOTH
PREVENT THE FRONT FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING THE AREA AS IT DECAYS
AND ALSO KEEP A LOW-LEVEL MARITIME INFLUENCE UNDER THE DEEP-LAYER
DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG THE COASTAL INTERFACE/DECAYING FRONT THROUGH TODAY. IN
GENERAL, HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW (~20-40%) ACROSS
THE EAST COAST.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITING THE MS VALLEY AND MOVING INTO THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING, WILL BEGIN OCCLUDING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY THE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH ENOUGH TO ADVECT LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER
UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, THE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE US A LONG
ENOUGH PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW TO CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH
FLORIDA, AND BRING A DRIER, MORE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS DOWN THE
STATE.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING, THE DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT THAT
COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT.
WHILE WE AWAIT THE CORE OF THE COOLER AIR TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE
ABLE TO CREEP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE
90S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING, BUT IT WON'T BE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WE START
TO FEEL THE MORE FALL-LIKE NIGHTS. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, AND LIKELY NOT REACHING 80 TO THE NORTH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE COOL NIGHTS AND
SEASONABLE AFTERNOONS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COOLEST NIGHTS WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE LAKE
REGION, AND UP TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MARITIME FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. SPECIFICALLY, THEY DIFFER IN JUST HOW
PROGRESSIVE THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PATTERN IS AND ALSO WHETHER A
CENTRAL CONUS SHORTWAVE IS ABLE TO CUTOFF AND DRIFT INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS, HOW STRONG IT WILL BE, AND WHAT KIND OF IMPACTS WE
RECEIVE LOCALLY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AVOID THE CUTOFF SCENARIO AND INSTEAD BRING A
LESS DYNAMIC FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN LESS OVERALL RAIN
IMPACTS, BUT BRING A RETURN TO MILDER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS
EARLIER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
LIGHT NWRLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL VEER NERLY AT EAST COAST
TERMINALS BY 16-18Z AS A WEAK ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
ISOLATED SHRA IS POSSIBLE AT EAST COAST TERMINALS 20Z-01Z BEFORE
ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER WNWRLY AT ALL TERMINALS
AFTER SUNSET BEFORE INCREASING AND VEERING NWRLY ONCE AGAIN BEHIND
A FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINLY DRY AND VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD,
HOWEVER MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
A GENTLE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MODERATE TO A
FRESH BREEZE AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES AND MELISSA MOVES NE
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. A 2-4 FOOT NORTHERLY SWELL
WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TODAY, WITH SEAS INCREASING
FURTHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO ABOUT 5-7 FEET ACROSS BOTH THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW ALONG GULF BEACHES AND INCREASED SURF FROM
NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK ALONG BOTH COASTS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 86 69 81 62 / 20 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 87 67 82 61 / 20 10 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 87 69 82 61 / 20 10 0 0
HOMESTEAD 86 68 81 62 / 20 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 68 80 61 / 20 10 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 85 68 79 61 / 10 10 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 88 69 83 62 / 20 10 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 84 67 78 59 / 10 10 0 0
BOCA RATON 86 67 81 60 / 10 10 0 0
NAPLES 84 70 79 61 / 0 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ069-168-172.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-
657-676.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HADI
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