405
FXUS62 KMFL 302239
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
- POOR MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- FIRST PROLONGED TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER ARRIVES TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS WILL PUSH
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL USHER IN A DRIER AIR
MASS AS DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE 50S. WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZIER
SIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES DUE TO HURRICANE MELISSA'S
PRESENCE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT ADVECTING THROUGH FLORIDA. WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO GUST
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. BY TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND LEAD TO CALMER WINDS ALONG WITH THE
DRIER WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT EXCEED 80 DEGREES AS
MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE
LAKE O REGION TO THE LOW 60S FOR THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STABLE
UPPER AIR PATTERN AND DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE MODESTLY BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT WITHOUT A
TRUE LIFTING MECHANISM IT WILL BE HARD FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, LONG
TERM ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DIFFER AND SPLIT IN REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE GENERAL
DEVELOPMENT BY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS THAT A MERIDIONAL JET STREAK
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
SOMEWHERE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST CONUS, IN WHICH THE TROUGH
HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME CUT OFF AND PROGRESS SLOWLY. IF THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER SETS UP CLOSER TO THE GA/SC COAST LIKE THE ECMWF
SUITE HAS, A DRIER SCENARIO WILL SET UP AS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE HARDER TO COME BY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE PUSHED
OFFSHORE UNDER SW FLOW. ON THE CONTRARY, IN A SCENARIO LIKE THE GFS
SUITE, THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMING OVER THE MS/AL/GA REGION WILL
FAVOR DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER SE
FLOW AND A MUCH WETTER SCENARIO.
DESPITE THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE SHOWING WETTER SOLUTIONS THAN OTHER
LONG TERM GUIDANCE, THE CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF THE GEFS FOR HAVING
TOTAL QPF EXCEED 2.0" FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK IS
CURRENTLY 20% OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE LATEST FORECAST IS GOING TO
TREND TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS WITH POPS GENERALLY ONLY 10-20%
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
WNWRLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL VEER NWRLY AND REMAIN LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AT ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA. BY LATE MORNING,
NWRLY WINDS WILL ENHANCE AND REMAIN BETWEEN 8-10 KTS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY BEFORE WINDS VEER MORE OUT OF A PURE NRLY DIRECTION LATE
IN THE DAY. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VEER
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS (NWRLY) DEVELOP
BETWEEN 17-19Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HURRICANE MELISSA CONTINUES TO
MOVE NE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SWELL WHICH WILL CAUSE SEAS TO RISE TO 6-8 FEET IN BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY ALONG WITH NORTHWESTERLY
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20-25 KTS. THEREFORE, HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXISTING FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL EXPIRE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS
QUICKLY DECREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
STRONGER WINDS DUE TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASING SWELL CAUSED
BY HURRICANE MELISSA WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE GULF COAST BEACHES AS WELL AS THE PALM BEACHES AND BROWARD
BEACHES. MIAMI BEACHES WILL BE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR TODAY. AN
ELEVATED RISK IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 64 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 62 80 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 62 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 63 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 62 77 64 80 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 62 77 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 63 81 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 59 77 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 60 78 63 81 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 63 78 59 80 / 10 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ069-172.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...HADI
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