206
FXUS62 KMFL 311631
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1231 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS IMPROVE TODAY, BUT LINGERING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
- TRANQUIL AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP TO END THE WEEK AS WELL AS THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE AS THERE WILL BE NO
NOTICEABLE DISTURBANCE ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF BROAD TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND UPPER-LEVELS. HOWEVER, DUE TO ITS BROAD NATURE
AND THE DRY AIR, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER FROM THIS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
RELAXES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH LIGHTER WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE O REGION TO THE LOW
60S FOR THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE ENHANCEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. SOME LONG RANGE MODELS PROGRESS THIS TROUGH MUCH
FASTER THAN OTHERS, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT IS THAT
A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE EARLY
WEEK PERIOD AND HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME CUT OFF, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
SLOW PROGRESSION. HOWEVER, THERE STILL EXISTS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO THE LOW ACTUALLY BECOMING CUT OFF DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ITS OVERALL EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT DESPITE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON THIS
LOW FORMING OVER A GENERAL REGION (THE SE STATES AND/OR WESTERN
ATLANTIC). THE END RESULT IS A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL RAIN
THREATS FROM THIS, BUT LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SUITE THEY ARE
TRENDING IN A DRIER DIRECTION FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION BEING MAXIMIZED MORE OFFSHORE AND THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION BEING CENTERED FURTHER NORTH OF THE
AREA. THEREFORE, THE LATEST FORECAST STILL TRENDS TO THE DRIER SIDE
OF THINGS, BUT THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SUDDEN CHANGES TO
THIS GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO
REBOUND A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT, LIKELY REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
LIGHT N/NWRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH VFR AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENHANCING OUT OF A NERLY DIRECTION AFTER DAYBREAK
ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A GENTLE TO LIGHTLY MODERATE BREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SEAS OF 3-5
FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WHICH WILL FALL FURTHER TO 2-3 FEET BY
SUNDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE PALM BEACHES
WHILE OTHER BEACHES WILL DROP TO A MODERATE RISK. AN ELEVATED RISK
MAY PERSIST FOR THE PALM BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT THE
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEACHES SHOULD FALL TO A LOW RISK AFTER
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 65 81 69 83 / 0 0 10 20
WEST KENDALL 62 82 67 84 / 0 0 10 20
OPA-LOCKA 64 82 68 84 / 0 0 0 20
HOMESTEAD 65 81 69 83 / 0 0 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 80 69 82 / 0 0 0 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 64 81 68 82 / 0 0 0 20
PEMBROKE PINES 64 84 69 85 / 0 0 0 20
WEST PALM BEACH 62 80 67 82 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 63 81 67 83 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 60 81 65 82 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...HADI
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