532
FXUS62 KMFL 312324
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
724 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 716 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS IMPROVE TODAY, BUT LINGERING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
- TRANQUIL AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
ASIDE FROM A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SLIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SW OVERRUNNING THE DRY LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW, A CLEAR
AND COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE BY 10 PM, WITH 50S BY
MIDNIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE, AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60F ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LOWER
60S OVER MOST EAST COAST METRO LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE URBAN
CORE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP TO END THE WEEK AS WELL AS THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE AS THERE WILL BE NO
NOTICEABLE DISTURBANCE ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF BROAD TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
IN THE MID-LEVELS AND UPPER-LEVELS. HOWEVER, DUE TO ITS BROAD NATURE
AND THE DRY AIR, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER FROM THIS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
RELAXES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH LIGHTER WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE O REGION TO THE LOW
60S FOR THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE ENHANCEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. SOME LONG RANGE MODELS PROGRESS THIS TROUGH MUCH
FASTER THAN OTHERS, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT IS THAT
A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE EARLY
WEEK PERIOD AND HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME CUT OFF, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
SLOW PROGRESSION. HOWEVER, THERE STILL EXISTS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO THE LOW ACTUALLY BECOMING CUT OFF DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ITS OVERALL EVOLUTION/PLACEMENT DESPITE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON THIS
LOW FORMING OVER A GENERAL REGION (THE SE STATES AND/OR WESTERN
ATLANTIC). THE END RESULT IS A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL RAIN
THREATS FROM THIS, BUT LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SUITE THEY ARE
TRENDING IN A DRIER DIRECTION FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION BEING MAXIMIZED MORE OFFSHORE AND THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION BEING CENTERED FURTHER NORTH OF THE
AREA. THEREFORE, THE LATEST FORECAST STILL TRENDS TO THE DRIER SIDE
OF THINGS, BUT THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SUDDEN CHANGES TO
THIS GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO
REBOUND A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT, LIKELY REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT MAINLY LAND/SEABREEZE DOMINATED WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY MENTIONABLE WEATHER WILL BE A
DECK OF SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CLOUDS AT 050-060 TOMORROW AFTER 18Z
PRIMARILY IN THE MIA/FLL AREAS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A GENTLE TO LIGHTLY MODERATE BREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SEAS OF 3-5
FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WHICH WILL FALL FURTHER TO 2-3 FEET BY
SUNDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE PALM BEACHES
WHILE OTHER BEACHES WILL DROP TO A MODERATE RISK. AN ELEVATED RISK
MAY PERSIST FOR THE PALM BEACHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT THE
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEACHES SHOULD FALL TO A LOW RISK AFTER
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 64 81 69 84 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 62 81 66 85 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 63 82 68 85 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 64 81 68 83 / 0 0 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 63 80 69 83 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 63 81 69 83 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 63 83 68 86 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 61 80 67 83 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 62 81 68 85 / 0 0 0 10
NAPLES 60 81 65 83 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
UPDATE/AVIATION...MOLLEDA
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