532
FXUS62 KMFL 010547
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- QUIET AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
ANOTHER TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS THE
REGION SITS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S. THUS, EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
ONGOING FOR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A LOT OF SUNSHINE. HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS A STRONG MERIDIONAL JET STREAK SITS JUST
UPSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A STRONG RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AS THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND ADVECTS
SOUTHEASTWARD, IT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH QPF WILL BE LOW SINCE THE STRONGEST
VORTICITY FROM THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA REGION. NEVERTHELESS, THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WHICH HAS LED TO INTRODUCING SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (15-20%) ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY
WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY BUT RISING
TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST OF LAKE O TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
LATEST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE MORE NICELY
ON THE SITUATION REGARDING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND CONTINUE TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE GA/AL AND CAROLINAS REGION AS WELL AS NORTHERN
FLORIDA WHILE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS. THE SURFACE LOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW REACHING
ITS GREATEST INTENSITY IN THE AREA OF THE GA/SC AREA ON MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATER ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS MORE PROGRESSIVE SETUP PLUS THE STRONGEST ENERGY BEING LOCATED
OFF TO THE NORTH IN NORTHERN FLORIDA AND GA/SC WOULD LEAD TO A DRIER
SCENARIO FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED
OFFSHORE AND THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL ALSO BE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL BE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. BEYOND THAT, DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
BACK TO THE AREA IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD, BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME AND CHANCES ARE LOW REGARDLESS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AGAIN TODAY
AROUND 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE NE FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. KAPF IS
LIKELY TO START OUT WITH NE WINDS AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NW LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR
THE WEEKEND. A GENTLE BREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE TO A SLIGHTLY MODERATE BREEZE ON
SUNDAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE PALM BEACHES FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO LINGERING SWELL WHILE THE REST OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA BEACHES WILL BE AT A LOW RISK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 81 69 84 70 / 0 10 20 20
WEST KENDALL 81 66 85 67 / 10 10 20 20
OPA-LOCKA 81 68 85 70 / 0 10 20 20
HOMESTEAD 80 69 83 70 / 10 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 69 83 70 / 0 10 20 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 69 83 70 / 0 0 20 20
PEMBROKE PINES 83 68 86 70 / 0 0 20 20
WEST PALM BEACH 80 67 83 68 / 0 0 20 20
BOCA RATON 81 68 84 69 / 0 0 20 20
NAPLES 80 64 83 67 / 0 0 20 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....REDMAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page