869
FXUS62 KMFL 012254
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
654 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 652 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- QUIET AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY TO MID PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- THE COMBINATION OF THE NEXT KING TIDE CYCLE AND BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONTINUATION OF A ANHYDROUS AIRMASS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S REPRESENTATIVE OF AMPLE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. ACARS
(AIRCRAFT DATA) OBSERVED UPPER AIR PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH A STOUT DEPARTURE
BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 800-700MB (ROUGHLY 5,000 TO 8,000 FEET)
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED CLOUD COVER TODAY AT TIMES. THAT
BEING SAID, OBSERVED PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES AT ALL
SOFLO TERMINALS REMAIN BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE,
DEPICTING THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIRMASS SITUATED ACROSS OUR REGION.
AND THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN WITH US FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS
THE PERSISTENT AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL VEER
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
USHERING IN A OCEANIC MODIFIED AIRMASS (AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE)
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND HIGHER LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY MOISTURE, THIS MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS (HRRR, RAP,
RRFS) INDICATE THAT WHILE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ASCENT
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY, INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER (<800-1000 J/KG
CAPE) AND LIMITED IN SCOPE. THE COMBINATION OF A LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER OUR LAND
AREAS.
ZOOMING OUT AND LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN, 17Z 500MB RTMA
ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN 2/3'S OF THE CONUS. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH
AS IT ADVECTS SOUTHEASTWARD WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH A DEVELOPING
MERIDIONAL JET STREAK WITH THE JOINT COMBINATION OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JET-STREAMS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT MORE ON THAT LATER. THE MAIN ITEM OF
INTEREST FOR US HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THE PROGRESSION AND
DEPTH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF. WHILE THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND GEFS STILL DEPICT A LOBE OF MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS, THE PROGRESSION OF
BOTH THE PARENT TROUGH AND THE SOUTHERN LOBE OF VORTICITY IS MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAN WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. THAT HAS RESULTED IN THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NOW BEING DEPICTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
SUNDAY THROUGH MID-DAY ON MONDAY.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS (GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES) FAVOR SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW LEVEL
FEATURE OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOLUTIONS HAVE
BACKED OFF OF DEPICTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS (AND A SLOWER TRANSIENT
MOTION) IN THE GULF, WHICH WOULD HAVE FAVORED THE POTENTIAL OF
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALSO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL ENHANCE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. INTERESTINGLY, THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL
AS A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN LOBE
OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY GETTING CUT-OFF FROM THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND RETROGRADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THIS
TIME- FRAME. HOWEVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS QUIET OVERALL
(OUTSIDE OF SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO
TIME) UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO ERODING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS ENHANCE
OUT OF AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
POTENTIAL GULF BREEZE AT KAPF) DURING THE LATE MORNING/ EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHRA IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ADDED IN VCSH AT
ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 16Z AND MAINTAINED VCSH THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR
THE WEEKEND. A GENTLE BREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE TO A SLIGHTLY MODERATE BREEZE ON SUNDAY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WAVES WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-3 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL ENHANCE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY HEADLINES DURING THE EARLY TO
MID PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FEET BY LATE
MONDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE GULFSTREAM WATERS THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE PALM BEACHES THIS
WEEKEND DUE TO LINGERING SWELL WHILE THE REST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA
BEACHES WILL BE AT A LOW RISK.
AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE ALONG THE EAST COAST
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS VEER TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND REMAIN
ELEVATED. THIS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH THE NEXT KING TIDE CYCLE
WHICH MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING AND AROUND HIGH TIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 69 83 70 85 / 10 20 30 20
WEST KENDALL 66 83 67 85 / 10 20 30 20
OPA-LOCKA 68 83 70 85 / 10 20 30 20
HOMESTEAD 68 83 70 84 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 68 81 70 83 / 10 20 30 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 68 82 70 83 / 10 20 30 20
PEMBROKE PINES 68 85 70 86 / 10 20 30 20
WEST PALM BEACH 66 82 69 83 / 10 20 20 20
BOCA RATON 67 83 69 84 / 10 20 30 20
NAPLES 63 83 67 81 / 0 20 20 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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