953
FXUS62 KMFL 020531
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
131 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY TO MID PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- THE COMBINATION OF THE NEXT KING TIDE CYCLE AND BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
THE PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND
ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD WILL SWING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS/GA REGION AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH,
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE
SW FLOW REGION AROUND THE MID-LEVEL LOW. THIS TYPICALLY WOULD FAVOR
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE BY A LARGER MARGIN, BUT THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH A LACK OF STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (THE ONLY TRUE
LIFTING MECHANISM FOR TODAY) AND A ROBUST DRY AIR COLUMN ABOVE THE
700-800MB HEIGHT LEVEL LEADS TO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THUS A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAIN. WITH THAT SAID, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FROM THE LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW MOISTURE
ADVECTION THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THEREFORE, POPS ARE GENERALLY 20% FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY AND AROUND 10-15% FOR THE WESTERN
HALF.
ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A STRONGER LIFTING MECHANISM, WHICH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIALLY GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS THIS AND ONCE AGAIN LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS.
OVERALL, WHILE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
BE BRIEF WITH LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S WEST OF LAKE
O TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
INTO TUESDAY, THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL ALSO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL ENHANCE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MID-WEEK AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. INTERESTINGLY,
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN LOBE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
GETTING CUT-OFF FROM THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND RETROGRADING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. HOWEVER THE
EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS QUIET OVERALL (OUTSIDE OF SOME OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME) UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK
AS SURFACE WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO ERODING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY, ALTHOUGH KAPF WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF MOST TERMINALS TODAY, BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR WITH PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONALLY LOWER CIGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A GENTLE TO LIGHTLY MODERATE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE TO A
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE ON MONDAY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS
RISE TO 4-7 FEET MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MID-
WEEK. THEREFORE, CAUTIONARY TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN TODAY
AND MONDAY AS WELL.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY RETURN ALONG THE EAST COAST
THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS WINDS VEER TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND
REMAIN ELEVATED. THIS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH THE NEXT KING TIDE
CYCLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING AND AROUND HIGH TIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 83 72 85 64 / 20 30 20 0
WEST KENDALL 83 69 86 63 / 20 30 20 0
OPA-LOCKA 83 71 85 65 / 20 30 20 0
HOMESTEAD 82 70 85 65 / 20 30 20 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 71 84 64 / 20 30 20 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 71 84 64 / 20 30 20 0
PEMBROKE PINES 85 71 86 65 / 20 30 20 0
WEST PALM BEACH 82 69 82 64 / 20 20 20 0
BOCA RATON 83 70 84 63 / 20 30 20 0
NAPLES 83 68 82 60 / 20 20 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...REDMAN
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