234
FXUS62 KMFL 021718
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1218 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY TO MID PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- THE COMBINATION OF THE NEXT KING TIDE CYCLE AND BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
THE PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND
ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD WILL SWING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS/GA REGION AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH,
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE
SW FLOW REGION AROUND THE MID-LEVEL LOW. THIS TYPICALLY WOULD FAVOR
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE BY A LARGER MARGIN, BUT THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH A LACK OF STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (THE ONLY TRUE
LIFTING MECHANISM FOR TODAY) AND A ROBUST DRY AIR COLUMN ABOVE THE
700-800MB HEIGHT LEVEL LEADS TO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THUS A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAIN. WITH THAT SAID, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FROM THE LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW MOISTURE
ADVECTION THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THEREFORE, POPS ARE GENERALLY 20% FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY AND AROUND 10-15% FOR THE WESTERN
HALF.
ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A STRONGER LIFTING MECHANISM, WHICH WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIALLY GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS THIS AND ONCE AGAIN LIMIT ACTIVITY TO SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS.
OVERALL, WHILE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
BE BRIEF WITH LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S WEST OF LAKE
O TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE COASTS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN TANDEM WITH THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS STILL DEPICT A LOBE OF MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY GETTING CUT-OFF AND RETROGRADING WESTWARD
UNDERNEATH A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS & NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL
VEER 500MB WIND FLOW TO A NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY DIRECTION
ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE CUT-OFF LOBE OF
VORTICITY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. AT THE SURFACE, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
AS A ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. A RIDGE OF SURFACE PRESSURE WILL
ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AS SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO
A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
BREEZY ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE A RETURN
INTO THE REGION. WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE BREEZE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE BREEZE AND CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATES BUT REMAINS SITUATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND THE BREEZE
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON REMAINING IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S AREA-WIDE. IT IS ALSO DURING THIS TIME FRAME, THAT
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY PUSHING BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A SLIGHT MOISTURE RESURGENCE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
WHILE THIS IS AT THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, CURRENT MODELS
DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BACK INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.9
INCH RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE MOISTURE RESURGENCE MAY
RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
LIGHT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISO TO SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION TODAY. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR ALL
EAST COAST TERMINALS. L/V WINDS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE WINDS ENHANCE AND VEER TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A GENTLE TO LIGHTLY MODERATE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE TO A
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE ON MONDAY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS
RISE TO 4-7 FEET MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MID-
WEEK. THEREFORE, CAUTIONARY TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN TODAY
AND MONDAY AS WELL.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY RETURN ALONG THE EAST COAST
THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS WINDS VEER TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND
REMAIN ELEVATED. THIS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH THE NEXT KING TIDE
CYCLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING AND AROUND HIGH TIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 85 64 82 / 30 20 0 0
WEST KENDALL 69 86 63 82 / 30 20 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 71 85 65 82 / 30 20 0 0
HOMESTEAD 70 85 65 81 / 30 20 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 84 64 80 / 30 20 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 84 64 81 / 30 20 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 71 86 65 82 / 30 20 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 69 82 64 81 / 20 20 0 0
BOCA RATON 70 84 63 81 / 30 20 0 0
NAPLES 68 82 60 81 / 20 10 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...HADI
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