223
FXUS62 KMFL 111126
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
626 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
- DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
- NEAR RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
WE'LL START THE PERIOD UNDER A LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WITH
NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE SHORTWAVE SPANNING THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, LEAVING BEHIND INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE ALSO VEERED
MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHWARD. WHAT THIS
ESSENTIALLY MEANS IS THE SHARP TRANSITION FROM NEAR RECORD LOW
MORNING LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY, TO HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BY
WEDNESDAY.
WHILE WE'LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FULL SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON, THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE IN THE BOTTOM 10TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH WON'T ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH DUE TO MIXING. THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER CONTINENTAL
AIR ADVECTING THROUGH THE STATE IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL ALSO HELP
KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS CAPPED. EXPECT HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 70
ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60 ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR ONE MORE
DAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
WINDS WILL BEGIN CALMING TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DRAWS
NEARER, SO WIND CHILLS WON'T BE QUITE AS LOW. BUT THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM REACHING THEIR TRUE POTENTIAL IN THE
PRESENCE OF THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE, UP TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST.
VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DEWPOINTS ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR ALOFT, EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL, MID 70S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY MID TO LATE WEEK AS SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, AND A FINAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA
BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE AXES TO FINISH THE WEEK, WITH THE LONGWAVE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE RATHER STATIONARY, RESULTING IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ENE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS, AND THEN TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN IS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
STRONG ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. WHILE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE CALM CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SPREAD ACROSS FLORIDA, IT
WILL TAKE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR SEAS TO CALM BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.
FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD, WINDS WILL HOLD IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH
SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG BOTH COASTS
TODAY AS LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAIN STRONG AND SURF REMAINS
ELEVATED.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL PALM
BEACHES AS A LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL SCRAPES THE PALM BEACH COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION, WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN AN 'ELEVATED' FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK FIRE POTENTIAL FORECAST ALSO
IN PLACE. ALSO SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS THE ONGOING D0 DROUGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. GIVEN THE ABOVE AND THE FACT
THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE WELL INTO CRITICAL LEVELS, AND
THE NOT INSIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF WINDS EXCEEDING 15
MPH, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR SW FL. AFTER
TODAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CLIMB OUT OF CRITICAL LEVELS
AND WINDS WILL CALM A BIT, LOWERING THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 68 60 76 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 68 55 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 69 59 77 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 68 59 76 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 68 61 75 65 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 68 60 76 65 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 70 60 78 64 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 67 59 75 62 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 68 60 76 63 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 64 50 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ069-075.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066-
067-070.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
676.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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