164
FXUS62 KMFL 120530
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1230 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
DEPENDING ON YOUR MINDSET, TODAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EITHER
REFRESHINGLY BEAUTIFUL OR A NIGHTMARE! STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA YESTERDAY BROUGHT THE
COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO SOUTH FL. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING RANGED
FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEST OF THE LAKE, TO 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REST OF SOUTH FL. ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES ONLY 0.2-0.3
INCHES, WHICH WOULD EASILY BE A RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH A STIFF N/NW BREEZE WILL
KEEP THINGS FEELING CHILLY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHADE. HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 AROUND THE LAKE, WITH MID AND
UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO. ALL CLIMATE
LOCATIONS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD SHOT AT BREAKING THEIR RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPS TODAY.
BESIDES THE COOL TEMPS, EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES (20-30%) OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SW FL THIS AFTERNOON, COMBINED WITH ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS, WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GLADES, HENDRY, COLLIER, AND MAINLAND MONROE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE N/NE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW RH
VALUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE METRO AND WITH A FETCH COMING IN OFF
THE ATLANTIC, WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT, ALBEIT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. WENT A LITTLE BELOW THE NBM WEST OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT WHERE LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S WEST OF THE LAKE, TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO.
WITH MORE OF A PURE NE WIND ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST, WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH FL DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 70S NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY, AND MID TO UPPER 70S OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY MID TO LATE WEEK AS SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, AND A FINAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOCAL AREA
BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE AXES TO FINISH THE WEEK, WITH THE LONGWAVE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE RATHER STATIONARY, RESULTING IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ENE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS, AND THEN TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN IS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS, UNDER A BROKEN MID-LEVEL EAST COAST CLOUD DECK
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF. NNE WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
STRONG ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. WHILE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE CALM CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SPREAD ACROSS FLORIDA, IT
WILL TAKE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR SEAS TO CALM BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.
FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD, WINDS WILL HOLD IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH
SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG BOTH COASTS
TODAY AS LONGSHORE CURRENTS REMAIN STRONG AND SURF REMAINS
ELEVATED.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL PALM
BEACHES AS A LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL SCRAPES THE PALM BEACH COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 76 65 79 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 77 61 79 61 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 77 64 79 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 77 64 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 65 77 65 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 75 65 78 65 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 78 64 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 75 63 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 77 64 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 77 57 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ630-
650-651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
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