283
FXUS62 KMFL 121717
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1217 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WHILE GRADUALLY IMPROVING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
A WEAKER, BUT STILL PRESENT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND RESULT IN A MORE MARITIME
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND
MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS, WHILE THE LESS ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THESE CHANGES,
WE'LL STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THE LOWS AND
HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE LATE THIS
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF A LARGE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
AND JUST HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS THAT THERE AREN'T MANY SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES
(TEMP/PRECIP) REGARDLESS OF THE EVOLUTION. AT THIS TIME, EXPECT
HEIGHTS ACROSS FLORIDA TO INCREASE AND BECOME MOSTLY ZONAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE, WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING FROM EASTERLY TO MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS.
ALL OF THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED MODERATING OF HIGH AND LOW TEMPS
TO NEAR AND THEN ABOVE AVERAGE, AND NO RAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL FOR GULF AND ATLANTIC
WATERS BY SUNRISE. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY FOR SEAS
ALONG THE GULF STREAM TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THOUGH. BEYOND
TODAY, GENERALLY ENE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WIND SHOULD CALM EVEN MORE BY THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
AS EASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS AND SURF SLOWLY SUBSIDE, A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 65 79 65 80 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 61 79 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 64 79 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 64 79 64 80 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 65 77 65 80 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 65 78 65 80 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 64 81 65 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 63 79 64 80 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 64 79 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 57 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ630-
650-651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM....HARRIGAN
AVIATION...REDMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page