088
FXUS62 KMFL 140540
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1240 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
- THE DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW MODERATING TREND HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY NEAR THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY AND SATURDAY. SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION, THIS WILL PROMOTE A NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG TODAY KEEPING A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY START TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AS PWAT VALUES RISE AND RANGE BETWEEN
0.7 AND 0.9 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREAS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, A MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OVER THE AREA OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE, THE LATEST GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A DISSIPATING BACKDOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
THE VERY SLOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS PWATS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO RISE AND
THEY WILL HOVER BETWEEN 0.8 AND 1.0 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, WITH PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE
COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING IN A DISSIPATING
STATE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS
THEY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK, A MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE REGION DURING THIS THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE THAT WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE AS THE LIGHT AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN WINDS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MAY CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST ALONG
THE BREEZE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY SHOWER THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE
BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL KEEP SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LOW TOPPED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. ON TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.
HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE
REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF GRADUALLY EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE REMAIN IN PLACE AND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT, MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE AFTER 15Z
AND WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT
KAPF, WINDS MAY SHIFT AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
EASTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, OVER
THE GULF WATERS THEY MAY SHIFT AND BECOME NORTH NORTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 79 66 80 66 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 80 62 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 80 65 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 79 65 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 67 79 66 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 80 67 80 66 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 82 66 83 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 80 67 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 81 67 81 64 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 81 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page