621
FXUS62 KMFL 151712
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1212 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
- DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECASTS. DID BUMP UP
POPS TO AROUND 10% ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS AROUND SUNSET, BUT
OTHERWISE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR SOUTH FL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
A COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
MORE ZONAL ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THIS
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WITH ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY HEADING INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL VEER AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AS TODAY PROGRESSES. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME
LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT WELL TO THE NORTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
STRONG COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE THE DRY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PWATS HOVER BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9
INCHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT
AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THEY WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY. HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL START TO
EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE LATEST
GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HAVING
THIS RIDGE SIGNIFICANTLY BUILDING AND INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE DOMINATE
SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WEEK. A RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND FLOW ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY ON
TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY START TO INCREASE HEADING TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. THIS INCREASING EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER IT WILL BE TAKING PLACE AT
A RATHER SLOW RATE. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH A
GOOD MAJORITY OF THE WEEK, THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY INTRODUCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ON TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE BREEZE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG CAP REMAINING
IN PLACE DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND SHORT LIVED.
WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW STRENGTHENING, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND ELSEWHERE AS MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH
AN AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE AT APF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
AND OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS, WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON
SUNDAY AND BECOME GENTLE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS. THESE WINDS MAY ONCE AGAIN SHIFT AND BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOME 2 FEET OR LESS ON SUNDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE PALM
BEACHES TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 65 82 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 61 83 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 64 83 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 63 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 81 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 65 82 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 64 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 64 83 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 64 83 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 63 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF
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