194
FXUS62 KMFL 161707
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1207 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
- MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THAT PATCHY
FOG WAS INTRODUCED EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FL. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT, PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED FOR VISIBILITIES UNDER 1
MILE OVER THE FAVORED INTERIOR PORTIONS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY, TAMIAMI TRAIL, SR-29 AND 80, AND
US-27. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ZONAL TODAY AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
IT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DISSIPATING OFF TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE THE SYNOPTIC
WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE
WEST SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THEN IT WILL SHIFT AND BECOME LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, (PWAT VALUES HOVERING
BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9 INCHES), THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT
AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS TODAY AND MONDAY AS THEY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND NORTHWESTERN CARRIBEAN SEA WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. AT THE SURFACE, SOME GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
TAKING PLACE AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WASHED OUT OFF TO THE NORTH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON TUESDAY AND THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
THE EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, ANY SHOWER
THAT DOES DEVELOP HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN
LOW TOPPED AND RATHER SHORT LIVED. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH INCREASING EASTERLY
SURFACE WIND FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START MODERATING
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER THE REGION CENTERING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE TAKING
PLACE OVER THE AREA THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
AS MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION, MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THEY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FL EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT PROBABILITIES OF
IMPACTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS ARE LOW AT THIS POINT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
A GENTLE WESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY, BEFORE VEERING AND BECOMING EASTERLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN AT
2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS MAY SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND RANGE FROM
2 TO 3 FEET ON MONDAY AS NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
INCREASES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 63 82 67 83 / 0 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 60 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 63 83 66 84 / 0 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 62 81 64 82 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 63 80 67 81 / 0 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 63 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 63 84 66 85 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 62 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 20
BOCA RATON 62 82 66 84 / 0 0 0 20
NAPLES 63 80 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF
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