427
FXUS62 KMFL 170505
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1205 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
- MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF
THIS WEEK.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE FIRST
COUPLE DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TO THE NORTH, A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS FEATURE
WILL SLOWLY TRY TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE,
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY MORNING AND FINALLY NORTHEASTERLY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WEAK BOUNDARY DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA.
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, (PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9
INCHES), THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN DRY
AND PLEASANT THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. ON TUESDAY, MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S HOWEVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY PEAK IN THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
FAIRLY BENIGN AND QUIET SENSIBLE WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE GULF BY THE MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA FIRMLY IN AN EASTERLY REGIME FOR THE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EX-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, ANY SHOWER THAT DOES DEVELOP HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN LOW TOPPED AND RATHER SHORT
LIVED. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION,
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND TIMEFRAME, HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
PWATS REMAINING AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE NEXT
PATTERN CHANGE TO SHAKE THINGS UP. IN THE MEANTIME, WE ENJOY THE
SUNSHINE AND BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW (WHICH COULD VERY WELL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL).
WITH THE INCREASING EASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY START MODERATING HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
LATE MORNING BECOMING NE 5-10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH A
WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
A GENTLE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL REMAIN 3
FEET OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 66 83 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 83 62 83 66 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 83 66 84 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 81 64 82 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 67 81 70 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 67 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 84 66 85 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 82 66 83 70 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 82 66 83 70 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 81 64 83 66 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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