253
FXUS62 KMFL 180535
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1235 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
- MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO VERY
LIGHT SURFACE WIND FLOW. AS THIS WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA, SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF THROUGH MID-WEEK. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, (PWAT VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9 INCHES), THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...AND LIKELY EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME MAKING WAY FOR MANY SUNNY DAYS
THIS WEEK, LEAVING ME WITH NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SOME PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA MAY REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
FAIRLY BENIGN AND QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA FIRMLY IN AN EAST-
NORTHEAST REGIME FOR THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A FEW SHORT LIVED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
EAST COAST REGIONS, HOWEVER POPS REMAIN LESS THAN 10%. AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GULF REGION, EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH PWATS REMAINING AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OUR NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY LEADING TO WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO EXCITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS
IT WILL BE WEAKENING ON FINAL APPROACH, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
INCREASING WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY BREACHING 1.2-1.3 INCHES. THIS
WOULD TAKE US BACK TO JUST ABOUT AVERAGE MOISTURE FOR NOVEMBER
WHICH REALLY ISN'T ANYTHING TO GET EXCITED OVER. WHILE THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ABOUT A WEEK OUT AND WILL BE MONITORED,
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MAINLY DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY 5-10KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AND WESTERLY AT
APF. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ISN'T EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 3 FEET OR
LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 70 83 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 83 65 84 66 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 84 68 84 69 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 82 68 82 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 70 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 70 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 84 68 85 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 82 69 83 69 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 83 70 84 70 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 84 64 84 65 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...CMF
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