877
FXUS62 KMFL 181711
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1211 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
- MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
PERSISTING. DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AND LIKELY BEYOND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTED IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO VERY
LIGHT SURFACE WIND FLOW. AS THIS WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA, SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF THROUGH MID-WEEK. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, (PWAT VALUES
HOVERING BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9 INCHES), THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...AND LIKELY EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME MAKING WAY FOR MANY SUNNY DAYS
THIS WEEK, LEAVING ME WITH NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SOME PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA MAY REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
FAIRLY BENIGN AND QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA FIRMLY IN AN EAST-
NORTHEAST REGIME FOR THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A FEW SHORT LIVED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
EAST COAST REGIONS, HOWEVER POPS REMAIN LESS THAN 10%. AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GULF REGION, EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH PWATS REMAINING AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OUR NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY LEADING TO WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO EXCITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS
IT WILL BE WEAKENING ON FINAL APPROACH, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
INCREASING WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY BREACHING 1.2-1.3 INCHES. THIS
WOULD TAKE US BACK TO JUST ABOUT AVERAGE MOISTURE FOR NOVEMBER
WHICH REALLY ISN'T ANYTHING TO GET EXCITED OVER. WHILE THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL ABOUT A WEEK OUT AND WILL BE MONITORED,
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MAINLY DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
TODAY AT 5-10 KTS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 3 FEET OR
LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 70 83 70 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 65 84 66 83 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 68 84 69 83 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 68 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 82 70 81 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 82 70 82 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 68 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 69 83 69 83 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 70 84 70 83 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 64 84 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...REDMAN
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