645
FXUS62 KMFL 200523
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1223 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
- MAINLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE GULF INTO CANADA, WITH SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA, AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE, WITH PWAT
VALUES RANGING FROM .8 INCHES TO 1 INCH, BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
EACH DAY. WITHOUT AMPLE MOISTURE AND FORCING, THESE WOULD BE LOW-
TOPPED AND EXTREMELY SHORT-LIVED. POPS REMAIN LESS THAN 10% FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S ALONG
THE COASTLINE, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK AS HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY
REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WORK-WEEK. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA
AND WASHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SO WEAK
THAT WE MAY NOT EVEN SEE A SURFACE FLOW RESPONSE TO IT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND MAINTAIN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A
LACK OF MOISTURE, AND A LACK OF MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, SENSIBLE IMPACTS WILL BE NEARLY NONEXISTENT AND WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COASTS WHILE SOME PORTIONS OF INLAND SW FLORIDA MAY HIT THE
UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONTINUES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY IN
THE MORNING OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FL. APF WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR FOG NEAR THE TERMINAL. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 16Z
WITH A MID AFTERNOON WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN 3 FEET
OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 83 70 83 69 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 84 65 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 84 69 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 83 69 82 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 70 81 69 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 70 82 69 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 85 69 85 67 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 83 69 82 67 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 83 70 83 68 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 84 65 84 65 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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