050
FXUS62 KMFL 221705
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1205 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY
ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE PALM BEACH COAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. ALSO EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG A BIT FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED TODAY AS RIDGING
PREVAILS ALOFT AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO THE LOW-MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF PATCHY TO
DENSE FOG OVER THE INTERIOR AND AREAS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
ON SUNDAY, A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AND A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP ALONG
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LACKLUSTER (0.8-1.1 INCH PWATS,JUST
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), AND THE BULK OF FORCING
MECHANISMS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, SO CHANCES FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH THIS FRONTAL
APPROACH, THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
RIDGING WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS BACK OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE RETURN OF EASTERLY FLOW
AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE (UP TO 1.0-1.3 INCHES OVER THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK). THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER FEELS-
LIKE TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON; WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD START
APPROACHING THE LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND, A STOUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NATION AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE REGARDING TIMING IN THE
ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE, WITH THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES FAVORING A FASTER
PROGRESSION, AND THE GFS LOOKING AT A SLOWER EVOLUTION. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOSE DIFFERENCES AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
THIS COULD MEAN A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH
POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO DROP
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND ONCE THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE
AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S AND LOW
70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS 5-8 KTS WITH
A MID AFTERNOON WESTERLY GULF BREEZE AT APF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER
INTERIOR SOUTH FL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WHERE WINDS MAY SHIFT AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY EACH
AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
SUNDAY, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SEAS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 67 84 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 62 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 66 85 67 83 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 66 83 65 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 66 83 68 81 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 66 83 68 82 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 66 85 67 84 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 65 83 67 82 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 65 84 67 83 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 63 83 65 84 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF
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