777
FXUS62 KMFL 231107
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
607 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 606 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY
ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, DESPITE THE GRADUAL
APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS, THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL APPROACH WILL BE A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER,
WITH RIDGING PREVAILING ALOFT AND MEAGER MOISTURE ALONG THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. ADDITIONALLY,
DESPITE THE BRIEF NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT, THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL NOT
REACH OUR AREA, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS VEER BACK FRO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
ON MONDAY, AND THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
RIDGING WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS BACK OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE RETURN OF EASTERLY FLOW
AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE (UP TO 1.0-1.3 INCHES OVER THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK). THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON; WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S EACH DAY, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD START
APPROACHING THE LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND, A STOUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NATION AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE REGARDING TIMING IN THE ENSEMBLE
ENVELOPE, WITH THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES FAVORING A FASTER PROGRESSION,
AND THE GFS LOOKING AT A SLOWER EVOLUTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THOSE DIFFERENCES AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
THIS COULD MEAN A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH POPS
IN THE 20-40% RANGE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO DROP SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND ONCE THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA, WITH
HIGHS IN THE HIGH 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S AND LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
WINDS BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY IN THE LATE MORNING. SEA BREEZES
WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTLINES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
USHERING A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS, AND
WESTERLY FLOW AT KAPF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
APPROACHING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED ON MONDAY.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD
AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY APPROACHES LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT TIMING AND
INTENSITY REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 69 83 72 / 0 0 0 0
WEST KENDALL 84 64 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 85 68 84 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 83 67 82 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 69 81 71 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 84 69 81 72 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 86 68 84 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 84 68 82 70 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 84 68 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 83 66 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...REDMAN
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