451
FXUS62 KMFL 232241
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
541 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS WELL AS
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
LOOKING AT THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC DATA, DECIDED TO PUT AREAS OF
FOG WEST OF THE LAKE AND OVER INLAND SW FL EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
WITH PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REST OF INLAND SOUTH FL. TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY HEADLINES OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED EARLY IN THE MORNING, BUT THAT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, DESPITE THE GRADUAL
APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS, THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL APPROACH WILL BE A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER,
WITH RIDGING PREVAILING ALOFT AND MEAGER MOISTURE ALONG THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. ADDITIONALLY,
DESPITE THE BRIEF NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT, THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL NOT
REACH OUR AREA, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS VEER BACK FRO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
ON MONDAY, AND THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
RIDGING WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS BACK OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL USHER IN THE RETURN OF EASTERLY FLOW
AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE (UP TO 1.0-1.3 INCHES OVER THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK). THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON; WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S EACH DAY, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD START
APPROACHING THE LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND, A STOUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NATION AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE REGARDING TIMING IN THE ENSEMBLE
ENVELOPE, WITH THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES FAVORING A FASTER PROGRESSION,
AND THE GFS LOOKING AT A SLOWER EVOLUTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THOSE DIFFERENCES AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
THIS COULD MEAN A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH POPS
IN THE 20-40% RANGE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO DROP SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND ONCE THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA, WITH
HIGHS IN THE HIGH 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S AND LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAY IMPACT APF,
PLACED A TEMPO FROM 09-12Z FOR LOWERED VISIBILITIES. WINDS BECOME
ENE 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z, WITH AN AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE EXPECTED AT
APF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
APPROACHING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED ON MONDAY.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1-3 FEET RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD
AS A STRONGER BOUNDARY APPROACHES LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT TIMING AND
INTENSITY REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 69 83 71 83 / 0 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 64 83 67 84 / 0 0 0 0
OPA-LOCKA 68 83 71 84 / 0 0 0 0
HOMESTEAD 67 82 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 68 81 71 82 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 69 82 71 83 / 0 10 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 67 84 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST PALM BEACH 68 82 70 84 / 0 10 0 0
BOCA RATON 68 83 71 84 / 0 10 0 0
NAPLES 66 85 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF
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