068
FXUS62 KMFL 241709
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1209 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SW FL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
ADDED SOME POPS IN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
HAVE SOME 10% POPS OVER INLAND SW FL EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR IS
MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP THIS EVENING, BUT DIDN'T GET THAT
AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF BREEZE LATER TODAY. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG IN FOR INLAND SOUTH FL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. DON'T EXPECT
THE FOG TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING, BUT THE
TYPICAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, DESPITE THE
GRADUAL APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STALLED
OVER THE PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, WITH
RIDGING PREVAILING ALOFT AND MEAGER MOISTURE ALONG THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. ADDITIONALLY, WITH ONSHORE
SURFACE FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE REGION AND WARM, MOIST AIR
ADVECTING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BUILDS BACK OVER THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
EASTERLY FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN MOISTURE (UP TO 1.0-1.3 INCHES
BY WEDNESDAY). THIS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON; WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S EACH DAY, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD START
APPROACHING THE LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND, A STOUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NATION AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME DIVERGENCE REGARDING TIMING IN THE
ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE, WITH THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES FAVORING A SLIGHTLY
FASTER PROGRESSION, AND THE GFS LOOKING AT A SLOWER EVOLUTION. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOSE DIFFERENCES AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
THIS COULD MEAN A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING
ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH POPS
IN THE 20-40% RANGE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO DROP SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND ONCE THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA, WITH
HIGHS IN THE HIGH 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S AND LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WESTERLY GULF
BREEZE DEVELOPING AT APF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AS A GULF
BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 83 72 84 / 0 0 0 20
WEST KENDALL 67 84 68 86 / 0 0 0 20
OPA-LOCKA 70 84 71 86 / 10 0 10 20
HOMESTEAD 71 83 71 84 / 0 0 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 82 71 83 / 10 0 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 83 71 84 / 10 0 10 20
PEMBROKE PINES 70 85 71 86 / 10 0 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 69 84 / 10 0 10 10
BOCA RATON 71 84 71 85 / 10 0 10 10
NAPLES 67 85 67 84 / 10 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF
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