300
FXUS62 KMFL 250724
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
224 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 220 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
- AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SW FL EARLY THIS
MORNING.
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OVER THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN UPTICK IN RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, HELPING PROMOTE
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL RECEDE NORTHWARD
TODAY, AND WINDS WILL BRIEFLY VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT,
WITH A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
HELP ENHANCE LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON; WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY, THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES COULD START APPROACHING THE LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NBM, CAMS AND HREF GUIDANCE ARE NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
RAIN CHANCES TODAY, BUT CANNOT DISCOUNT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES
MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE THIS EVENING.
PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OF CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING, DESPITE
THE BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT. ACARS
SOUNDING DATA ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOW ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE
BELOW 700MB FOR RADIATION FOG TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS OF
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SREF AND HREF GUIDANCE BOTH HAVE
ABOUT 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE BETWEEN
4-8AM. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND, A STOUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NATION AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
POOLED OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT (PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES,
NEAR THE 75% PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), THIS COULD MEAN A
GENERAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH POPS IN THE 20-40%
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO DROP SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEEKEND ONCE THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA, WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND
DOWN FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 40S-50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE,
WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOME OF THE LONG- RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND, PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH MOISTURE
SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION AND CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNING AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY EASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KTS LATE
MORNING, EXCEPT AT KAPF WHERE THE GULF BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL INLAND OF THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AS A
GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FEET. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND WINDS AND SEAS BUILD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 72 84 70 / 0 0 10 20
WEST KENDALL 84 68 85 67 / 0 0 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 84 70 86 70 / 0 0 10 20
HOMESTEAD 83 70 84 69 / 0 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 71 83 70 / 0 0 10 20
N FT LAUDERDALE 82 72 84 70 / 0 0 10 10
PEMBROKE PINES 84 70 86 70 / 0 0 10 20
WEST PALM BEACH 83 70 84 68 / 10 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 84 70 85 69 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 85 67 84 67 / 0 0 0 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV
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