480
FXUS62 KMFL 251730
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1230 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
- AREAS OF PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING.
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MID WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OVER THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN UPTICK IN RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY AS A ROBUST MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
AREA WEATHER. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PREVAILING E/SE WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING A WEAK FROPA IN THE THU-FRI
TIME FRAME, WITH THE BULK OF THE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WITH
SOFLO'S ATLANTIC METRO AREAS SOUTH OF I-75 HAVING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SOME SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S, THEN DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES FRIDAY BEHIND THE FROPA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND, A STOUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NATION AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
POOLED OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT (PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES,
NEAR THE 75% PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), THIS COULD MEAN A
GENERAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH POPS IN THE 20-40%
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO DROP SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEEKEND ONCE THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA, WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND
DOWN FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 40S-50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST FL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE,
WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOME OF THE LONG- RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND, PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH MOISTURE
SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION AND CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNING AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 8-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AT KAPF
WHERE THE GULF BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. L/V FLOW
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL INLAND
OF THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AS A
GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FEET. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND WINDS AND SEAS BUILD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 84 71 83 / 10 10 20 40
WEST KENDALL 68 85 67 84 / 10 10 20 40
OPA-LOCKA 71 85 70 83 / 10 10 20 40
HOMESTEAD 71 84 70 83 / 10 10 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 83 70 82 / 10 10 20 40
N FT LAUDERDALE 71 83 70 83 / 10 10 20 40
PEMBROKE PINES 71 86 70 84 / 10 10 20 40
WEST PALM BEACH 69 84 70 82 / 0 10 20 30
BOCA RATON 71 84 70 83 / 10 20 20 40
NAPLES 68 84 69 81 / 0 0 10 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...AR
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