764
FXUS62 KMFL 261134
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
634 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 633 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
- AREAS OF PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MID WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OVER THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN UPTICK IN RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY, MAINTAINING WARM AND GENERALLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THIS RIDGE WILL BEING TO ERODE ON THURSDAY AS A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. PUSHES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE COUNTRY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS, WITH
PWATS RISING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY THURSDAY EVENING (NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR). THIS MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY, MAY SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED AT BEST, AND POPS REMAIN IN THE 20-30% RANGE TODAY, UP TO
40-50% TOMORROW, MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARM
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND HEAT INDICES
NEARING THE LOWER 90S.
PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OF CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING, DESPITE
THE BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT. ACARS
SOUNDING DATA ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOW ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE
BELOW 700MB FOR RADIATION FOG TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS OF
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SREF AND HREF GUIDANCE BOTH HAVE
ABOUT 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE BETWEEN
4-8AM. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE EASTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ALONG THE
PENINSULA. A NOTABLE DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING
TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND DOWN FURTHER INTO THE UPPER
40S-50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
COULD ALSO BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SOME OF THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF
THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING NORTH LATE THIS THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK, PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH
MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
RETURNING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY EASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KTS LATE MORNING,
EXCEPT AT KAPF WHERE THE GULF BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION WILL INTRODUCE
NORTHWEST WINDS LATE MORNING THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, BUT
VEERING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EACH
AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3
FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN DETERIORATING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 84 71 83 63 / 30 30 50 30
WEST KENDALL 85 67 84 61 / 30 30 50 30
OPA-LOCKA 85 70 84 63 / 30 30 50 30
HOMESTEAD 84 70 83 63 / 30 30 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 70 82 63 / 20 30 50 30
N FT LAUDERDALE 84 71 83 63 / 30 30 50 20
PEMBROKE PINES 86 70 85 62 / 30 30 50 30
WEST PALM BEACH 84 69 83 61 / 30 40 40 20
BOCA RATON 85 70 83 61 / 30 30 50 20
NAPLES 85 69 82 56 / 10 10 10 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...99
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