439
FXUS62 KMFL 262254
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
554 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 517 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
- AREAS OF PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS INTERIOR
FLORIDA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OVER THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN UPTICK IN RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
ONE MORE DAY OF GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT PERIODS OF WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF
COAST WITH SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. THE PERSISTING MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE STARTING TONIGHT AS ENSEMBLES AND NBM
DEPICT A WEAK FROPA MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA IN THE THU-FRI TIME
FRAME. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
AFFECT SOFLO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LATEST NBM BUMPING POPS UP TO
50 PERCENT FOR THE SE CORNER OF FLORIDA, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-75. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA THAT EVENING.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINS LACKING WITH THIS RELATIVELY WEAK FROPA, 500
MB TEMPS AROUND -7C, MODEL CAPE/MUCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG, AND PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 2 IN. OVERALL, EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. IN OTHER WORDS, NOT
EXPECTING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE A DROUGHT-BUSTER FOR SOFLO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TODAY, AND LOW-MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
MODEST COOLING WILL FOLLOW THE FROPA WITH TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL
DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE EASTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ALONG THE
PENINSULA. A NOTABLE DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING
TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND DOWN FURTHER INTO THE UPPER
40S-50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
COULD ALSO BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SOME OF THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF
THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING NORTH LATE THIS THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK, PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH
MOISTURE SURGING BACK INTO THE REGION AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
RETURNING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS,
ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR PERIODS MAY DEVELOP AROUND PBI AND FXE
WITH VCSH/TS. L/V FLOW OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT
FROM THE WSW AFTER 16Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 16Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, BUT
VEERING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EACH
AFTERNOON AS A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3
FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN DETERIORATING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 71 84 62 75 / 20 50 20 0
WEST KENDALL 68 84 60 75 / 20 40 20 0
OPA-LOCKA 70 84 61 75 / 20 50 20 0
HOMESTEAD 70 83 62 75 / 20 40 20 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 83 61 74 / 30 50 30 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 70 83 61 74 / 30 50 20 0
PEMBROKE PINES 70 85 61 76 / 30 50 20 0
WEST PALM BEACH 69 83 59 73 / 30 40 10 0
BOCA RATON 70 84 59 75 / 30 50 20 0
NAPLES 69 81 54 72 / 10 20 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page