029
FXUS62 KMFL 271813
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
113 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 101 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR AND SW
FL.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS BEGIN TONIGHT, ALONG WITH A RIP
CURRENT RISK ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES BEGINNING FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AS MENTIONED IN THE
OVERNIGHT DISCUSSION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BECOME FAIRLY STRONG. THE LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT
AN INVERTED-V SETUP ALONG WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
ADDITIONALLY, DCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 600-800 J/KG. THESE
PARAMETERS CONFIRM THAT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS VIA DOWNBURSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DUE TO HOW DRY ITS BEEN IN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS, HEAVY RAIN
COULD LEAD TO QUICK FLOODING CONCERNS AS WELL SINCE DRY GROUND CAN
ACT SIMILAR TO CLAY, WITH WATER JUST RUNNING OVER THE TOP OF IT
RATHER THAN SINKING INTO THE GROUND. OVERALL, WHILE THERE AREN'T
ANY MAJOR CONCERNS FOR TODAY, THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE
DISRUPTIVE ENOUGH TO THANKSGIVING DAY ACTIVITIES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
SOUTH FL REMAINS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MILD EARLY THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER SW FL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLLIER/LEE LINE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANY PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL FL ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN US
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY,
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES ROUGHLY 1.3-1.6
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 80S.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS EVENING, AND BEHIND
THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS WILL CRASH INTO THE 20S WEST OF THE LAKE AND ACROSS SW FL,
AND INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S AROUND THE LAKE TO LOWER 60S OVER SE FL. A BRISK
NORTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 25-
30 MPH. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 60S AROUND THE
LAKE TO MID 70S OVER SE FL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
TURN OUR WINDS BACK TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL INCREASE
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTH FL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
CLEARS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS FL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN FL EARLY NEXT WEEK DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN HOWEVER SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH SOUTH FL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NNW EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THEY WILL GRADUALLY START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTH FL LATER TODAY AND AFTER IT'S PASSAGE
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LIKELY
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WAVES BUILD TO 2-4 FT BY TONIGHT
AND THEN INCREASE TO 5-8 FT IN THE GULF AND 6-10 IN THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS OF 20-
25 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
INCREASING SWELL BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THE RISK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 61 74 66 78 / 30 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 59 75 61 79 / 20 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 60 75 64 79 / 20 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 61 75 65 78 / 30 0 0 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 59 73 66 77 / 20 0 0 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 59 74 66 77 / 20 0 0 10
PEMBROKE PINES 59 76 64 80 / 20 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 58 73 64 77 / 10 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 58 75 65 79 / 20 0 0 10
NAPLES 53 72 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...REDMAN
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